Pro football’s postseason is currently in full swing, with the conference championships taking place this Sunday. Sunday’s winners will move on to the pro football championship on February 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
Millions of people across the nation (and the world) will tune in for the big game. And for many, especially those who aren’t actually interested in football, the commercials that air between plays will be more entertaining than the on-field action. And Kalshi offers a chance to trade on which brands will advertise.
Big game commercials
Some of the most recognizable brands in the world will gladly shell out big money (in the neighborhood of $8M for a 30-second spot) to air their ads in front of 120 million-plus big game viewers.
With less than a month until the big game, Kalshi traders price brands like Pepsi (99%), Liquid Death (97%) and OpenAI (97%) as the most likely brands to air an advertisement. Subsequently, Gemini (87%), T-Mobile (85%), Hims & Hers (85%), Paramount (83%), and Disney+ (82%) are all trading above 80¢.
The field
This market also features many notable names up and down the board. Netflix is trading at 70¢ to run a big game ad. Further down, SHEIN (33%), Tesla (20%) and Zyn (15%) are also in the mix.
As previously noted, the big game will be played in Silicon Valley. So Kalshi users are also trading on numerous artificial intelligence companies, including Anthropic (75¢), Perplexity AI (29¢), NVIDIA (18¢) and Grok (14¢).
Rules summary
What will constitute a "big game ad” in this market?
Kalshi’s official market rules state: “If [brand] airs a qualifying advertisement during the official national 2026 Big Game broadcast, then the market resolves to Yes. (...) A qualifying advertisement includes any commercial featuring the brand, sponsorship segments clearly identifying the brand (e.g., ‘This halftime show brought to you by…’), or branded content integration with prominent display.
The rules go on to say that an “ad must occur after kickoff and before regulation time (or overtime if any) ends. Stadium signage without dedicated airtime, pre-game ads, post-game ads, streaming-only ads, regional ads, and parent company ads without specific brand identification do not qualify. Co-branded advertisements with equal billing count as qualifying.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Brand to advertise at the Big Game 2026
To win the pro football championship…
(Click here to trade on all of this weekend's playoff games)
Follow Gabriel Santiago on Instagram: @ByGabrielSantiago
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