Chicago guard odds tumble as Trump targets Memphis

President Donald Trump’s decision to deploy the National Guard to Memphis has jolted prediction markets, boosting expectations of troops in Tennessee while dragging down odds for other cities, particularly Chicago.

Trump announced the move Friday on Fox & Friends, saying the city is “deeply troubled” and that both the governor and mayor were supportive. “We’re going to fix that, just like we did Washington,” he said, according to the Associated Press.

The announcement followed lobbying by Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena, who urged Trump to focus on Memphis. Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., quickly praised the plan, saying Trump had answered her call to “Make Memphis Safe Again,” Fox News reported.

On Kalshi, the market asking which cities Trump will send the National Guard to this year shows Memphis at 69% after Friday’s news.

Chicago, meanwhile, has seen its odds tumble. Contracts on a Guard deployment to the city have fallen to 31%, down 17 points . Traders appear to have reassessed after Trump suggested Chicago was too “hostile” and that local politicians were “professional agitators” resisting his efforts.

The divergence is stark: just last week Chicago was the most-watched city in the market, briefly trading near 70%. But with Memphis now the confirmed target, attention has shifted elsewhere.

Beyond Memphis and Chicago, traders see elevated chances in New Orleans (44%) and Baltimore (39%). Both cities are Democratic-run and have been cited by Trump as possible next stops. New York City is priced at 25%, while Portland, Boston, and Detroit remain in the mid-teens.

The moves reflect Trump’s broader strategy of using Guard deployments as a centerpiece of his crime initiative. After sending troops to Los Angeles and Washington earlier this summer, he has openly mulled interventions in other major cities.

Memphis presents a complicated case. Despite Trump’s framing of the city as “deeply troubled,” local police data show crime has dropped across major categories in 2025, hitting a 25-year low. Democratic leaders in Memphis and Shelby County have pushed back, warning of “occupation” and “armored vehicles” in their neighborhoods, the AP reports.

Still, Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee has aligned with the administration and is working on operational details. His cooperation may explain why Memphis odds raced higher compared to Chicago, where Gov. JB Pritzker and Mayor Brandon Johnson have vowed legal action to block federal troops.

For markets, the split underscores the importance of political alignment. Traders think Trump can more easily deploy to cities where Republican governors are on board, while Democratic-led states remain less likely to acquiesce.

Kalshi pricing now reflects:

While some traders are also watching Kalshi’s separate martial law contract, which has climbed to 32%, the Guard deployment market suggests a narrower interpretation. For now, investors see Trump’s use of military forces in cities continuing, but tailored to political realities rather than a sweeping national move.

Sources: Associated Press, Sept. 12, 2025; Fox News, Sept. 12, 2025

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