Democrats’ Election Night sweep jolts midterm markets

Traders on Kalshi sent Democratic odds soaring after the party’s Election Night sweep, repricing the likelihood of a 2026 House takeover to its highest level in years.

The market “Which party will win the U.S. House next year?” now prices a 75% chance that Democrats will hold the chamber after next year’s midterms; up 15 points. The surge follows decisive wins in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City, signaling a strong rebound for the party just one year after its bruising losses in 2024.

The Democratic sweep market, which tracks whether Democrats would win all major 2025 elections, spiked to 99% on Tuesday night, up more than 20 points within hours of polls closing, as the party won three of the most closely watched races in the country.

In Virginia, Rep. Abigail Spanberger defeated Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor’s race, while Democrat Jay Jones overcame a late-breaking texting scandal to oust Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares.

In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill prevailed over perennial Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, keeping the governorship blue for a third consecutive term. And in New York City, Zohran Mamdani became the city’s first Muslim mayor, defeating former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who ran as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the night “a repudiation of the Trump agenda.” Exit polls cited by CBS showed that while economic concerns dominated voters’ minds, Democrats regained strength with suburban and Latino voters, two blocs that shifted rightward in 2024.

An Associated Press report added another development boosting Democratic sentiment. In Kansas, House Speaker Dan Hawkins abandoned a Republican effort to call a special session for mid-decade redistricting, one that could have targeted Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids.

The decision, coming after weeks of pressure from former President Trump to redraw maps nationwide, signaled cracks in the GOP’s redistricting strategy. Lawmakers in Indiana and Kansas have now resisted Trump’s push, even as states like Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina have followed it.

Traders on Kalshi’s redistricting market have priced Kansas at just 14% odds of redrawing its map before 2026, down 16 points this week, underscoring skepticism that GOP leaders will move ahead. Meanwhile, states such as California, Ohio, and Texas top the list of those most likely to redraw districts before the midterms.

The combination of strong Democratic showings in blue and swing states, and Republican hesitation in key redistricting battles, has dramatically altered the landscape. Kalshi’s House control market hasn’t been this favorable to Democrats since early 2023, when traders briefly priced a post-midterm rebound before momentum swung back toward Republicans during the 2024 cycle.

Traders now see Democrats entering 2026 with a firmer national foothold and fewer structural disadvantages. Whether those odds hold will depend on how the economy evolves and how President Trump navigates his second year in office. But for now, markets indicate that the political tide has turned.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

Sources: CBS News, Nov. 4, 2025; Associated Press, Nov. 4, 2025.

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