Kalshi traders hedge as December Fed meeting grows murkier

For most of the fall, traders treated a December rate cut as a done deal. Now, with the Federal Reserve’s final meeting only weeks away, that confidence has evaporated, and the December Fed Decision market has flipped into a razor-thin split:

It’s a sharp reversal from mid-October, when odds of a cut hovered near 80%. The shift reflects both widening divisions inside the Federal Reserve and the ripple effects of a historic government shutdown that wiped out key economic data.

CNBC reported Thursday that several officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, have publicly pushed back against expectations for another cut. Collins warned that policy should stay at current levels “for some time,” citing inflation still above target and an unclear economic picture. Powell has also tried to cool expectations, reminding markets that a December cut is “far from a foregone conclusion.”

Uncertainty around December has also spilled into Kalshi’s Rate Cut Count market, which now shows one of the tightest macro divides of the year as traders who once saw a smooth easing cycle brace for a choppier path.

According to Bloomberg, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a non-voting member, said he opposed the last cut and remains undecided for December, joining a growing set of officials urging caution until more data arrives. San Francisco’s Mary Daly echoed that uncertainty, calling it “premature” to commit either way.

With hawks more vocal and doves more hesitant, Powell faces a divided committee heading into his final months as chair.

Another cause for concern stems from the recently resolved shutdown. The White House now acknowledges that some October releases may never be published at all. That means no official inflation or jobs numbers for a stretch when the Fed typically relies on them most.

Business Insider reported that this “data blackout” has left investors uneasy, helping drive Thursday’s nearly 800-point Dow drop and a broad tech sell-off. Traders aren’t sure whether the Fed will be willing to cut without a clear read on the labor market or price pressures.
Source: Business Insider, Nov. 13, 2025.

The Recession Before 2027 market illustrates this uncertainty, as odds have slipped to 31%.

The market no longer sees December as a clean inflection point. Instead, traders are signaling a winter defined by uncertainty, limited visibility, and a Federal Reserve forced to navigate its most consequential meeting of the year without the tools it typically relies on. What once looked routine now appears to be the most finely balanced, and least predictable, Fed decision in years.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

Sources: CNBC, Nov. 13, 2025; Bloomberg, Nov. 13, 2025; Business Insider, Nov. 13, 2025.

_{This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Any opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions.}