Filibuster odds rocket from 10% to 90%

Recently, the team at Kalshi noticed strong movement in the market for whether the filibuster would be weakened – it shot up from ~10% yesterday to over 90% today.

This is likely based on news that GOP Senate Majority Leader John Thune is preparing to change the Senate rules to allow batch confirmation of lower-level executive nominees (like ambassadors), which Democrats have been stalling. In the past, these nominees were typically confirmed quickly, often with just a voice vote and no formal roll call.

But since these nominees already needed only 51 votes officially to be confirmed, how is this weakening the filibuster, which requires 60 votes to break? The answer is a bit nuanced, but it speaks to the power of prediction markets that the public caught on to this so early…

Keep in mind that confirming lower-level executive nominees are currently a 2-step process:

By using an intricate parliamentary procedure, Thune will set a new rules precedent that lower level nominees will only need 51 votes to be confirmed in batches.

If this goes through, it will erode the filibuster by creating another small carve-out in what can be filibustered and chips away at the minority party's ability to slow down the majority. This would be the third weakening of the filibuster in recent years, after:

2013: Democrats under Harry Reid eliminated the filibuster for cabinet-level and most judicial nominees (excluding Supreme Court).

2017: Republicans under Mitch McConnell eliminated it for Supreme Court nominees.

Ultimately, why is this important? It continues the trend of eroding minority party rights in the Senate. Both parties have chipped away at the filibuster when it became inconvenient to their agenda, reflecting the increasingly polarized political environment.

While the main filibuster for legislation remains intact for now, it looks increasingly isolated—and the question may soon become when, not if, it also goes on the chopping block.

Follow Jaron Zhou on X: @ZhouJaron

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