Three-time Grammy winner Sean "Diddy" Combs in happier times.
Politics is an inherently dirty business, attracting all manner of narcissists, sycophants, and power-hungry amoral monsters. So this week, as a nice change of pace, we're going to focus on something far less seedy: the music industry.
The 67th annual Grammy Awards will be held this Sunday at 8:00 p.m. ET. It's a chance to celebrate the industry that selflessly cultivates the musicians who enrich our lives, as well as the artists who make our world a better place through the transformative power of song.
Who will join the storied ranks of Michael Jackson, Sean 'Diddy' Combs, and R. Kelly at tomorrow's ceremony?Here's what Kalshi traders are predicting for this year's "Big Four" awards.
This is an opinion, not financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author, who uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on the platform.
Three-time Grammy winner R. Kelly!
The Grammy for Best New Artist honors rising singers who are "shaping the future of music." This year's current favorite, Chappell Roan, says her sound and style was largely inspired by drag culture.
That might fly in Hollywood, but is the rest of America ready for a woman who wears makeup and dresses?
Kalshi traders think so, and her chances of winning are nearing 70%.Another contender is former Girl Meets World star Sabrina Carpenter, who currently has a 30% chance of winning.
Like many former pop stars, Sabrina is a product of Disney's Kids-TV-show-to-music-stardom pipeline. Unfortunately, that pipeline often lets out in a Ventura County psych ward, so I hope Sunday goes well for her.
Michael Jackson wins 8 Grammys in 1984.
In 1984, pop legend Michael Jackson took home a record eight Grammy Awards, which helps explain the singer's trademark penchant for all things 8.
But can anyone from this year's crop of nominees top Jackson's record?
Beyonce is in a position to do so, thanks to her 11 nominations. But our traders think it's unlikely. She is not favored to win any of the "Big Four" categories, and has only a 3% chance to win Song of the Year.
The current favorite, Billie Eilish, has a 66% chance to take home the trophy, while rapper Kendrick Lamar's chances are priced at 16%.
9-time Grammy winner Bill Cosby.
For some reason, I can tell you that Bill Clinton's first Secretary of State was named Warren Christopher—but I still can’t tell you the difference between Record of the Year and Song of the Year.So here's some copy I stole from Vox:
"The Record of the Year honors, first and foremost, the performing artist. Song of the Year honors the songwriter. Record of the Year is given to the performing artist, the producers, the sound engineers, the master engineer, and the sound mixers...everyone who would be in a recording studio...receives a golden gramophone for this award."
Oh, I get it. Song of the Year goes to the artist who writes the song, while Record of the Year goes to the artist who performs the song, as well as the engineers who trick you into thinking they can sing.
With that in mind, traders give Sabrina Carpenter a 64% chance to win Record of the Year, but only a 3% chance to win Song of the Year. Ouch.
But whatever. She played Maya Hart. She's got nothing to prove to you degenerates.
“Music is the strongest form of magic” - Five-time Grammy nominee Marilyn Manson.
Looking over this year's nominees for Album of the Year, I can't help but notice they are all female. I wonder if that was intentional, and the music industry is overcompensating for something.
Nah. It's probably just the Industry's selfless commitment to promoting female talent. Girl power. Yas queen slay. And so on.
Anywho, if our traders are correct, Taylor Swift's recent dominance is likely to come to a close. Despite the financial success of her The Tortured Poets Department, its chances of winning Album of the Year are at only 6%.
On the other hand, Billie Eilish's odds are currently priced at 52%, while Beyonce's Cowboy Carter has around a one-in-four chance of winning.
For more Grammy-related markets beyond the "Big Four," click here.
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.