Kamala Harris announced Wednesday that she will not run for governor of California in 2026—a decision that removes her from the state's political spotlight but leaves open the possibility of another run for the White House. Yet, despite the buzz surrounding her exit, traders on Kalshi aren’t exactly rushing to buy.
As of Wednesday evening, Harris’s odds of becoming the Democratic nominee in 2028 ticked up just two cents on Kalshi’s prediction market, moving from 4¢ to 6¢. That puts her well behind Gavin Newsom (20¢), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (15¢), and Pete Buttigieg (10¢) in the crowded field of potential contenders.
In short: the market noticed, but barely flinched.
The former vice president’s statement came after months of speculation over whether she’d pursue a comeback via California’s 2026 gubernatorial race. “I love this state, its people, and its promise. It is my home,” Harris said. “But after deep reflection, I’ve decided that I will not run for governor in this election,” Bloomberg reports.
Harris had been seen as a top-tier candidate to replace Gavin Newsom, who is barred from seeking a third term. Her name recognition and national profile would have made her an immediate frontrunner. But her decision not to run, according to some observers, may signal a broader ambition.
By removing herself from the governor’s race, Harris avoids becoming entangled in a brutal and likely crowded primary—and keeps herself free for national moves. As Bloomberg noted, her decision “essentially leaves the door open for the former vice president to mount a third White House bid.”
Still, Kalshi traders aren’t buying it—at least not yet.
Harris’s brief 2024 presidential run ended abruptly after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race threw the Democratic field into chaos. She failed to consolidate support and quickly faded from contention, eventually endorsing Gavin Newsom, who went on to lose narrowly to Donald Trump.
Her low market odds today reflect both that 2024 fumble and the difficulty of regaining momentum in a party that increasingly looks to fresh faces. While Harris’s base in California remains strong, her national brand has suffered under the weight of prior campaign stumbles and middling approval numbers.
That helps explain why her decision to sit out 2026 has had such a muted effect in prediction markets. If anything, the move may have been viewed as expected—or as simply keeping her political options open rather than signaling a concrete plan.
Meanwhile, Newsom remains the clear favorite on Kalshi’s Democratic nominee board. His 20¢ price reflects continued name ID, high fundraising capacity, and the fact that, unlike Harris, he’s still an active officeholder. Ocasio-Cortez, Buttigieg, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro round out the top five.
In total, more than $12.8 million in volume has been traded across Kalshi’s “Democratic nominee in 2028” market, with over $10 million in open interest—a sign of just how hotly contested (and uncertain) the race remains.
In her statement, Harris hinted at continued involvement in Democratic politics, saying she plans to support candidates “who will fight fearlessly” and will share more about her own plans “in the coming months.” That vagueness may be part of the reason traders are holding back. Without a clear signal that she’s gearing up for a presidential run, Harris remains, for now, a long shot.
Still, in a field with no clear heir and three years to go, no one is truly out of the running. And if Harris is playing the long game—staying visible without overexposing herself—her 6¢ price may not stay low forever.
But for now, Kalshi traders are betting that stepping aside in Sacramento doesn’t mean stepping onto the national stage.