How to bet on who Trump will pardon in his first 100 days

Traders can bet on Who will Trump pardon in his first 100 days by speculating on which specific individuals will receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve within 100 days of Trump taking office, with a resolution deadline of May 1, 2025.

Donald Trump has publicly vowed to pardon individuals involved in the January 6th Capitol riot as part of his Day 1 agenda when he returns for a second term on January 20, 2025. This promise and his broader agenda have sparked widespread debate about who might be pardoned during his first 100 days in office. From controversial figures like Ross Ulbricht and Julian Assange to rapper NBA YoungBoy, Kalshi’s betting market on who Trump pardons offers traders a unique opportunity to speculate on Trump’s potential actions.

Here are the key market mechanics you need to understand before placing your trades:

On Kalshi, contracts are priced dynamically between $0.01 and $0.99, reflecting the market’s perceived probability of an event occurring. For example:

If a “Yes” contract for Julian Assange is priced at 40¢, the market believes there is a 40% chance Trump will pardon him within his first 100 days in office.

If a “No” contract for Enrique Tarrio trades at 85¢, it reflects an 85% chance that he will not receive a pardon during this period.

Kalshi’s markets match buyers and sellers for each contract to create a balanced trading environment. For every “Yes” contract purchased, there must be a trader on the other side selling the “Yes” contract (or effectively betting “No”). This pairing ensures that an opposing trade fully backs every position.

For example:

If you buy a “Yes” contract for Steve Bannon at 82¢, another trader sells a “Yes” contract at 82¢, effectively betting “No” (or buying a “No” contract at 18¢).

If Bannon is pardoned within 100 days, the market resolves to “Yes,” and you receive the $1 payout. Your profit would be 18¢ ($1 payout minus your 82¢ purchase price), while the trader who bet “No” loses their 18¢ stake.

Conversely, if Bannon is not pardoned within the specified time frame, the market resolves to “No.” The “No” trader receives the $1 payout, and you lose your 82¢ stake.

This pairing mechanism ensures a fair and transparent market, allowing traders to adjust or sell their positions as new information emerges.

Kalshi’s market features a diverse list of high-profile and controversial figures who could receive a presidential pardon. Here’s an overview of the key individuals:

When analyzing who Trump might pardon within his first 100 days, consider the following key factors:

Trump’s pardons often reflect his appeal to his core supporters. His promise to pardon January 6th participants underscores this trend. Individuals like Enrique Tarrio and Ross Ulbricht, who represent causes or ideologies valued by Trump’s base, may be prioritized.

During his first term, Trump pardoned conservative figures like Joe Arpaio and Dinesh D’Souza, signaling his preference for decisions that align with his supporters’ values.

Tip: Pay attention to Trump’s public speeches and social media posts for clues about who he may pardon.

Trump has a well-documented history of granting pardons to allies and loyalists. Notable examples include Steve Bannon, Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, and Paul Manafort, all involved in legal battles connected to his presidency.

Tip: Review Trump’s history of pardons for patterns in prioritizing personal relationships and loyalty.

Pardoning high-profile figures like Julian Assange and Edward Snowden could be a calculated move to dominate news cycles and align Trump with anti-establishment narratives. These decisions often generate significant public debate and political controversy.

Trump previously expressed sympathy for both Assange and Snowden but stopped short of issuing pardons during his first term, leaving the door open for future clemency.

Tip: Monitor news coverage and social media trends for public and media sentiment regarding high-profile cases.

Urgent legal challenges may also drive pardons. For example, Trump could issue clemency to individuals facing imminent legal jeopardy or even attempt to pardon himself—a legally untested move that hinges on pending charges.

Tip: Track ongoing legal developments and cases involving potential pardon candidates.

Considering these factors, you can make informed predictions about who Trump might pardon and position yourself strategically in the market.

A clear strategy is essential when betting “Yes” or “No” on a candidate. Here are some approaches to consider:

Track Trump’s public statements:

Trump’s speeches and social media activity often signal his priorities. Focus on any mentions of individuals or groups aligned with his base, such as January 6th participants or figures who have publicly supported him.

Monitor media momentum:

If candidates like Ross Ulbricht or Julian Assange gain sudden media attention, public sympathy, or endorsements from key influencers, their likelihood of receiving a pardon may increase. Capitalize on these developments by purchasing “Yes” contracts before prices adjust.

Diversify among high-potential candidates:

Instead of betting heavily on one candidate, consider spreading your investments across multiple individuals with a reasonable chance of receiving a pardon. This approach reduces risk if Trump prioritizes someone unexpected.

Focus on unlikely candidates:

Figures like Eric Adams or Roger Ver, who lack strong ties to Trump or his base, are less likely to receive pardons. These contracts often present good value for “No” bets, especially if the market misprices their perceived probability.

Monitor shifting market sentiment:

Public sentiment, media narratives, and legal developments can shift quickly. If new information makes a pardon less likely for a particular candidate, “No” contracts may become more attractive.

Diversify among low-probability candidates:

Like “Yes” strategies, spreading your bets across multiple “No” contracts for candidates less likely to be pardoned can help mitigate risks.

Use market volatility to your advantage:

Sudden changes in sentiment, legal updates, or media coverage can create buying opportunities. For example, if false rumors cause a spike in “Yes” prices for an unlikely candidate, consider purchasing undervalued “No” contracts.

Adjust your positions:

Don’t hesitate to sell or rebalance your positions as new information emerges. The market’s dynamic nature requires traders to stay flexible.

Stay informed and act quickly:

Monitor credible news sources, Trump’s public statements, and real-time market trends to stay ahead of sentiment shifts and potential market inefficiencies.

By diversifying your bets, tracking market developments closely, and adjusting your positions as needed, you can position yourself strategically to navigate this fast-moving and high-stakes market.

Trading on Trump’s potential pardons within the first 100 days of his presidency comes with several risks tied to these decisions' short timeframe and unpredictable nature.

One major challenge is Trump’s unpredictability. While he has promised to issue pardons for January 6th participants on his first day back in office, it remains uncertain how many pardons he will prioritize or whether his focus will extend to other individuals during this limited 100-day period. This unpredictability makes it difficult to gauge which candidates might realistically receive clemency within the timeframe.

Legal and constitutional challenges could also arise, particularly if Trump attempts to pardon himself. Such an unprecedented act would almost certainly face legal disputes, delaying market resolution and raising questions about whether a self-pardon would be recognized.

Given the short window for these actions, traders must account for the compressed timeline and potential for delays or surprises in Trump’s decision-making. By staying focused on credible sources and tracking Trump’s early actions closely, you can better navigate the uncertainties of Kalshi's inauguration market.

Kalshi’s event contracts operate on a straightforward binary payout system, where each contract pays $1 based on the outcome. Here’s how it works:

A “Yes” contract pays $1 if the individual you bet on is granted clemency (pardon, commutation, or reprieve) within the specified time frame.

A “No” contract pays $1 if the individual does not receive clemency during this period.

Each contract's price reflects the market’s perceived probability of the event occurring. If your prediction is correct, you’ll receive the full $1 payout per contract, regardless of the price you originally paid.

Examples

If you purchase a “Yes” contract for Trump to pardon himself at 30¢ and he does so, the market resolves to “Yes,” and your payout is $1. This results in a profit of $0.70 per contract ($1 payout minus the 30¢ purchase price).

If you buy a “No” contract for Enrique Tarrio at 85¢ and he is not pardoned, the market resolves to “No,” and your payout is $1, yielding a profit of $0.15 per contract ($1 payout minus the 85¢ purchase price).

This payout system ensures clarity and simplicity for traders, offering opportunities to profit from both high probability and unexpected outcomes.

In summary, Kalshi’s market on who Donald Trump might pardon in his first 100 days offers a unique chance to trade on high-stakes political decisions. With various candidates, from allies like Steve Bannon to polarizing figures like Julian Assange and Edward Snowden, the market allows traders to speculate on Trump’s clemency actions during a compressed and highly scrutinized timeframe.

Traders can position themselves strategically by understanding how the market works, analyzing Trump’s past behavior, and staying informed on public sentiment and legal developments. However, the unpredictability of Trump’s decision-making and the potential for media-driven volatility make this event contract both challenging and exciting.

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.