Both political parties are fighting to maintain control of state legislatures and the US House and Senate with a new weapon this election cycle: off-year redistricting. States usually redraw the lines for voting districts every 10 years following the release of US Census figures.
Some states have started redrawing their maps and a few have already signed them into law, but there’s a great deal of focus on the state of Indiana and how it will respond to the call for redrawing its district lines. In October, Kalshi traders were forecasting that Indiana would also warp its district maps, with odds spiking as high as 97%. But recent responses from state officials to President Donald Trump’s demands have caused those numbers to crater.
Indiana’s leaders can’t agree
Indiana has been getting a lot of coverage in this redistricting battle because it’s not exactly clear if the legislature will go along with the White House’s plan to ensure they have enough seats in 2026 before anyone casts a ballot.
President Trump urged the state to redraw its maps, but Indiana Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray said there are no plans to reconvene in December. The President responded on his Truth Social page that Indiana “must produce on this” or risk being the only state without new maps. He also called out Bray, saying he will have “a Primary Problem, as will any other politician who supports him in this stupidity,” even though Bray won’t appear on a ballot until November of 2028.
Indiana Gov. Mike Braun stepped in to calm the President by urging the Senate to take up the issue. His office released a statement urging the Senate to start working on new voter district maps to ensure that “Hoosiers’ voices in Washington, D.C., are not diluted by the Democrats’ gerrymandering.”
But despite the President’s pressure and Braun’s recent statements, Kalshi traders still think Indiana is unlikely to act.
As mentioned above, traders drove up “yes” trades that Indiana would implement new district lines to as high as 97 cents by the end of October. However, once Bray made his statement rejecting Trump’s request to bring the issue to the Senate, “Yes” contracts plummeted to as low as 11 cents. The trade saw a short rebound to 32 cents before dropping back down into the 20s where it remains.
The 2026 midterms
While President Trump and other Republican leaders are pushing for states to redraw their district maps in the hopes they can hold on to the House in the 2026 midterms, Kalshi traders are currently forecasting a 72% chance that the Democrats will take back the chamber.
The Democratic Party’s lead in Kalshi trades has seen some slight fluctuations since Nov. 4. Traders on the Republican side haven’t been able to push its red line over the blue line even once. The closest margin the red traders could achieve is an 11.8 percent difference on Oct. 20, just 19 days into the government shutdown.
Battle lines redrawn
As previously mentioned, President Trump has been asking redder states to redraw their district maps in the hope that Republicans can maintain their grip on the House. So far, states like Texas and Missouri have implemented new district maps that could add more Republican seats, but states like California and Utah struck back by also approving new district maps that could add more Democratic seats.
Losses at the polls on Nov. 4 are also a cause for concern among Republicans. There hasn’t been a lot of talk about impeachment since Republicans control both houses of Congress, but things could change quickly if Democrats retake the House.
However, while traders are optimistic on the Democrats’ chances in 2026, they seem to have less confidence in a third Trump impeachment. “Yes” trades have been flirting with either side of the 50-cent mark for the past month, going as low as 47 cents to a high of 53.3 cents just a few days ago. As of Tuesday, Trump’s impeachment trades are sitting at 52. That is still near an all-time high, but far from a sure thing.
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