Is 'Jimmy Kimmel Live!' dead?

Last night, ABC announced it was suspending Jimmy Kimmel Live!. The move came after Kimmel appeared to imply Charlie Kirk’s killer could be a Trump supporter earlier in the week.

The resulting backlash included several Sinclair and Nexstar-owned ABC affiliates refusing to air future shows, and threats from Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Brendan Carr to take action against the Disney-owned network.

“Look, we can do this the easy way or the hard way,” Carr said.

As news of Kimmel’s suspension became known, critics, including former President Obama, immediately accused the Trump administration of using government pressure to stifle free speech. And maybe they’re on to something, since I’ve already cut like six jokes from this post.

(Click here to trade on our Jimmy Kimmel markets.)

“After years of complaining about cancel culture, the current administration has taken it to a new and dangerous level by routinely threatening regulatory action against media companies unless they muzzle or fire reporters and commentators it doesn’t like,” Obama said.

Meanwhile, many notable Trump supporters were quick to defend the move, claiming it was in the public interest to punish Kimmel for allegedly spreading misinformation about the killer.

Megyn Kelly, who was previously fired from NBC for her own controversial comments, accused Kimmel of “smearing an entire movement and Trump in particular with a vile, disgusting lie.”

FCC Chairman Carr also supported ABC’s move, saying it was “important for broadcasters to push back on Disney programming that they determine falls short of community values,” which is a wild thing to say when Bachelor in Paradise exists.

Now, I like my job, so I 100% buy the “public interest” argument, and do not think it’s just retribution for Kimmel’s years of mocking Trump in any way, shape or form!

But on the other hand, I’m sure there are some woke sh*tlibs out there who might wonder why Trump is now calling for Jimmy Fallon and Seth Meyers to be fired, since they had absolutely nothing to do with this?

To be clear, I’m not asking that. I’ve got 5 kids to feed.

Besides, if he does get fired, I have a replacement for Kimmel that will make everyone happy:

At any rate, my opinions on the matter don’t mean diddly squat. So let’s take a look at the collective wisdom of our traders and see what’s in store for Jimmy Kimmel.

When news of Kimmel’s suspension broke, his cancellation odds soared. The market had been hovering around 10%, but spiked as high as 88% in the immediate aftermath before settling at roughly a 60% chance he’d be ousted in 2025.

Since then, sentiment has shifted again, and his odds of being canceled have eased to 55%. Not great news if your name is Jimmy Kimmel, but the trend is moving in his favor, at least for now.

If Kimmel does survive through this year, when will he be back on the air? Right now, traders think there’s a 17% chance he’s back before October, a 39% chance he’s back before November, and a 42% chance he returns before December.

Traders also think there’s only a 49% chance that the show will return before the end of the year, leaving a 51% chance that he won’t be back on the air until at least 2026, if ever.

As I mentioned above, President Trump celebrated the news of Jimmy Kimmel’s suspension by encouraging NBC to also fire Seth Meyers and Jimmy Fallon. However, our traders currently seem to think they are probably in the clear. Their odds of being shown the door in 2025 are only 20% and 10%, respectively.

Of course, there are other politically-charged shows (although I’m not sure you can count Jimmy friggin’ Fallon as politically charged) that have been in Trump’s crosshairs throughout the years. But they too appear to be relatively safe, at least for now.

Currently, The View has just over a one-in-five chance of getting pulled, while The Daily Show’s odds of cancellation are at just 16%.

Last but not least, South Park’s odds of getting canceled are at only 6%, which is pretty damn good for a show that routinely mocks the president’s penis size… which I do not condone, because I like my job, and I’ve got four kids to feed.

Click here to trade on our Jimmy Kimmel markets.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

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