This Sunday, February 8, will be a busy day for international elections as voters in three different countries head to the polls in consequential elections across two continents. Voters in Portugal will decide who their next President will be in a contentious runoff election, while voters in Japan and Thailand will vote in snap parliamentary elections to determine the fate of their current Prime Ministers.
Back in January, Portugal held the first round of its presidential election, in which the electorate was split between 5 leading candidates. Because no candidate received over 50 percent of the vote in the first round – only the second time this has happened during its 50-year old modern democratic era – the top two candidates advanced to a runoff election on February 8.
Those two candidates are António José Seguro from the Socialist Party, who finished first with 31% of the vote, and André Ventura, the far-right Chega Party leader who finished second with around 23.5% of the vote. Ventura’s performance is just the latest milestone in a stunning rise for Chega, which has vaulted to being the country’s leading opposition party since its founding just 6 years ago. Ventura’s ascent has paralleled the rise of far-right parties across Europe, with his campaign focusing on familiar themes criticizing immigration, the Roma community, and government corruption.
For his part, Seguro has emphasized the moderate nature of his candidacy and has sought to portray himself as someone committed to maintaining institutional stability, protecting democratic values, and preserving social welfare systems. But in many ways, this runoff has been defined more by opposition to Ventura, who is hoping to capitalize further on anti-establishment sentiment and has painted the status quo as ineffective at addressing Portugal’s cost of living and economic challenges.
To that end, many of Portugal’s center-right politicians have united behind Seguro, seeking to draw the line between liberal (albeit center-left) and illiberal forces. This includes nearly all of the candidates who lost in the first round of the presidential election, such as João Cotrim de Figueiredo, Henrique Gouveia e Melo, and Luís Marques Mendes from the ruling center-right Social Democratic Party.
Given this broad unification behind Seguro, he remains the overwhelming favorite to win the presidential runoff; traders have consistently had Seguro at a 98% chance of victory.
The polling has also shown a large lead for Seguro, with markets predicting a blowout margin of victory, likely somewhere between 30 and 40 percent.
In fact, one of the more suspenseful markets – and one that demonstrates the scale of Seguro’s victory – asks whether Seguro will win every district in Portugal.
But even if Seguro does sweep into the Palace of Belém, Ventura’s strong showing in the election further solidifies Chega’s position on the right and his role as the primary opposition leader, holding significant implications for future Portuguese elections, including parliamentary elections that determine the Prime Minister – an even more powerful role than President.
Japan: the nation’s first female Prime Minister seeks a mandate
In January, Japan’s first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, announced that she would call a snap election for Japan’s House of Representatives, its Lower House. This election would only give candidates 12 days to campaign for their seats, the shortest period in the postwar era.
Takaichi became Prime Minister in October 2025 after former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned following back to back dismal election showings in which the LDP lost its majority in the House of Representatives in 2024 and also lost control of the House of Councillors, Japan’s Upper House, in July 2025.
But the conservative Takaichi, who had to rely on the rightwing Japan Innovation Party to govern after the centrist Komeito ended its longstanding alliance with the LDP following Takaichi’s ascension, likely found a minority government untenable to pursue her policies of increasing spending, strengthening Japan’s military, revising Japan's pacifist constitution, and tackling the cost of living crisis. By calling a snap election almost three years early, Takaichi is seeking to parlay her high approval ratings (70%+) early in her tenure into a strong legislative majority for the LDP (the party’s approval lags at around 30%).
And the polls and markets indicate her gambit may indeed pay off. Campaigning on potentially suspending the 8% food consumption tax and cracking down the use of slush funds by party MPs, Takaichi remains overwhelmingly favored to lead the LDP to victory in Sunday's elections and remain Prime Minister.
Takaichi’s main opposition in the election is the newly formed Centrist Reform Alliance, which was created through a merger of the center-left Constitutional Democratic party of Japan (CDPJ) and Komeito, the LDP’s former coalition partner. The CRA has sought to present itself as reflecting a “centrist approach aimed at moving from divisive, confrontational politics to one of coexistence and inclusion.”
Ultimately, though, the CRA’s message may struggle to resonate against Takaichi’s framing of the election as a referendum on her personal appeal and acceptance of her prime ministership. In fact, traders only give the CRA a 7% chance of winning more than 172 seats, the combined number that the CDP and Komeito won in the last Lower House election. Perhaps most ominously, that percent chance has been dropping as the campaign approaches election day.
Although anything can happen with a campaign season this short, it seems likely that Takaichi will emerge from the election with a more unified party and government apparatus behind her, providing critical support as Japan confronts its internal economic struggles as well as rising aggression from China over Taiwan.
Thailand: a critical test of democracy after political turbulence
Over the past few years, Thailand’s political processes have had a strained relationship with more autocratic forces in the country, to put it mildly.
In 2019, Thailand transitioned from direct military rule to an “electoral autocracy,” essentially a system in which unelected officials and the military hold certain vetoes across the government, which holds significant consequences for government formation. After the 2019 elections, for example, the Constitutional Court ordered the dissolution of the progressive and anti-military Future Forward Party, which had finished unexpectedly well in the election. In the 2023 elections, the successor of Future Forward, the Move Forward Party, won the most seats in the House of Representatives. But because a military-appointed Senate, filled with allies of the monarchy and military, had to vote jointly with the House to select the prime minister, Future Forward was blocked from forming government, and the Pheu Thai Party (allied with conservative pro-military parties) formed the new government instead. Subsequently in 2024, Thailand’s Constitutional Court also banned the Move Forward Party and its leaders from politics.
The Court was not done however – it removed two consecutive Pheu Thai prime ministers in 2024 and 2025, leading to an agreement by which the current prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul of the Bhumjaithai Party, dissolved parliament in December 2025 and called for new elections this February.
In the upcoming elections, the leading contender is the People’s Party, which is the third iteration of the banned Future Forward and Move Forward parties. It has campaigned on an ambitious progressive reform agenda, including curbing the power of the military and the courts, reining in big conglomerates, reforming the bureaucracy, and expanding social welfare. The PPLE draws strong support from younger and urban voters and has leaned heavily into its social media savvy under its 38 year old leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut. Polls and markets favor the People’s Party to finish first, as the Move Forward Party did in 2023
The PPLE’s biggest competitors in the election are the Bhumjaithai Party, backed by the royalist-military establishment and led by incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, and the populist Pheu Thai Party, which finished second in 2023. The Bhumjaithai Party is seen as Thailand’s dominant conservative force, aligning itself with the military and seeking to use border tensions with Cambodia to position itself as an overtly nationalist choice. Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai Party is closely associated with the Shinawatra clan, which boasts two former prime ministers and a billionaire patriarch. The PTP’s base is predominantly in the rural north of Thailand.
One big difference between this election and the last, though, is that the appointed Senate will have no say in choosing the prime minister, meaning that it won’t be able to directly vote to block the reformist People’s Party from forming a government should it emerge victorious.
Overall, then, Thailand’s elections may be less about partisan policy differences and personality contests and more about the direction and durability of Thailand’s political system. This latest election will test whether the country can finally break a cycle of political instability and enter a truly democratic period with less influence from the military and Thailand’s monarchy.
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who works for Kalshi and cannot trade on the platform. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.