Kalshi traders peg August CPI at 2.8%

Kalshi traders are leaning toward a modest but sticky inflation print when the August consumer-price index (CPI) is released Thursday morning at 8:30 PM ET.

In the headline CPI market, contracts on “Above 2.8%” are trading at 62¢, while “Above 2.9%” has dropped to just 19¢. The market is essentially ruling out a break above 3.0%, which is trading at only 3¢. That puts the consensus squarely at 2.8% YoY, a touch below economists’ median forecast of 2.9%.

In the core CPI market, which strips out food and energy, Kalshi traders are pricing a 3.1% YoY print, in line with Wall Street expectations. “Above 3.0%” is trading at 63¢, while “Above 3.1%” is at just 19¢. This shows traders are expecting that core inflation holds steady, but they see meaningful risk of an upside surprise in the 3.0–3.1% range.

The longer-term market, “How high will inflation get in 2025?,” points to 3.5% as the year’s peak, with just a 14% chance of inflation topping 4%, and virtually no chance of a 5% handle.

MarketWatch notes that Thursday’s CPI release is arriving at a pivotal moment: investors already expect a Fed rate cut next week, but the size of that cut, and the outlook for additional easing in 2025, could hinge on whether inflation runs hotter than expected. Core services inflation, in particular, has been running at an annualized 3.6% pace in recent months, raising the risk that sticky categories like housing and medical care keep pressure on prices.

At the same time, Yahoo! Finance highlights the unusual gap between producer prices (PPI) and consumer prices (CPI). Today’s PPI report suggests companies have been absorbing tariff-related costs rather than fully passing them on. That has supported margins so far, but analysts warn it may become harder to sustain if tariffs continue to bite.

Kalshi traders are signaling that August CPI is likely to come in around 2.8% headline / 3.1% core — right in line with economist forecasts. But the market is also trading against any breakout higher, suggesting confidence that inflation will remain contained enough for the Fed to begin easing next week.

Whether that easing path accelerates or slows will depend on how sticky core services inflation proves to be, and whether companies can keep eating cost pressures without passing them to consumers.

Sources: MarketWatch, Sept. 10, 2025; Yahoo! Finance, Sept. 10, 2025.

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