In the “above 100,000” contract, traders are pricing in an 80 percent chance that job gains in July exceed that level. But once the threshold rises to 125,000, the picture becomes more uncertain. That contract is trading at 50 cents, showing an even split among participants. For “above 150,000,” the price falls to just 19 cents, signaling skepticism about any strong upside surprise.
That market outlook mirrors but slightly exceeds Wall Street’s baseline expectations. According to Morningstar, FactSet forecasts call for a 117,500 gain in jobs for July, down from 147,000 in June. UBS is predicting a weaker 95,000 gain, citing a likely pullback in government hiring after an unusually strong June. Goldman Sachs expects a more moderate 100,000 increase.
Kalshi’s pricing suggests traders are leaning slightly more optimistic than the major forecasts. The market clearly expects job growth to remain above six figures, but is unsure whether it can clear the next hurdle.
Morningstar reports that economic uncertainty, particularly around tariffs and immigration policy, is putting pressure on the private sector. “The private sector remains sluggish,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. “The knock-on impact is that you don’t get a lot of aggregate income gains.” She also noted that last month’s unemployment dip was driven by a decline in labor force participation, not stronger hiring.
Economists expect the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.2 percent, and wages are projected to rise 0.3 percent month-over-month. These mixed signals could make this one of the more closely watched jobs reports of the year, especially as the Federal Reserve considers its next move on interest rates.
In total, more than $670,000 in open interest is riding on Kalshi’s suite of payroll markets. Traders are signaling that they expect a cooling economy, but not a hard landing. Whether the actual report lines up with that view will be clear at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday.