A lot has happened since I last published a newsletter, so there is no shortage of important topics I could cover.
Should I write about:
Nah, none of that stuff matters anymore because it’s about to snow! Everybody panic!
Besides, if I write about weather instead of politics, I’m a lot less likely to get a barrage of angry emails explaining how the blizzard of 2020 was nothing more than a deep-state hoax.
At any rate, the storms will not be prevented, but thanks to Kalshi’s winter storm markets, the damage to your wallet may be palliated.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.
Why trade on the weather?
Even before Kalshi was allowed to offer markets on elections and sports, we offered CFTC-regulated weather markets covering temperature, precipitation, and other key weather metrics across cities throughout the United States.
These contracts allow users to hedge against weather-related economic risk.
For example:
A vacationer scheduled to fly can use rainfall markets to hedge against the risk of flight delays caused by storms.
A snowplow driver can use snowfall markets to hedge against a potential loss of revenue should a predicted snowstorm fail to materialize.
My mom can use daily low-temperature markets to offset potential funeral expenses caused by me freezing to death while drinking fortified wine in the alley behind my halfway house.
Or, you can just use these markets to hedge against the cabin fever that comes from being stuck inside all weekend due to snow. The list goes on and on.
So with that in mind, here’s a look at some of our winter storm-related markets for this weekend.
New York City
Kalshi traders are currently forecasting a whopping 13.8 inches of snow in the Big Apple this weekend. Considering our office is located in New York, we should probably close up shop and head home before things get bad.
Just kidding. The snow won’t matter since no one is allowed to leave the office.
But that might turn out to be a good thing. Unlike the average Kalshi employee’s squalid studio apartment, the office actually has heat. And that heat will probably come in handy, since traders are predicting a low of 16.8°F today and 9.8°F on Saturday.
Boston
This weekend, New England plays Denver in the AFC Championship game. And luckily, the game is taking place in Denver, where less than an inch of snow is expected. Compare that to Boston, which our traders currently forecast to receive 17.2 inches of snow.
That figure is even more impressive, considering the city is expected to get 23.2 inches for the entire month.
Miami
No one really thinks it’s going to snow in Miami this weekend, or even this month. But I just wanted to take this opportunity to tell anyone who lives there (or anywhere warm, for that matter), that I hate you and your forecasted high of 80°F and your forecasted low of 68°F with the fire of a thousand suns.
Chicago
Currently, there’s only a 47% chance that Chicago will see more than two inches of snow this weekend, which isn’t a lot, at least by Chicago standards.
While the Second City might be lacking in snow this weekend, it will more than make up for it with frigid, life-threatening temperatures.
Traders in our daily temp market think Chicago has already peaked with a high of between 7°F and 8°F. They are also forecasting a low of -9.6°F. Markets for tomorrow show more of the same, with a projected low of -7.4°F.
But on the bright side, it won’t actually feel that cold. It will feel even colder, thanks to a windchill of between -30°F and -40°F.
In other words, if you go outside in Chicagoland, the weather might kill you. But if you stay inside and trade on Kalshi, the weather might make you some money! The choice is yours.
Stay inside, and click here for more weather-related markets!
Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realOldTerry
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.