Kash Patel’s future atop the FBI was thrown into fresh uncertainty Tuesday after conflicting reports set off an intraday surge and an equally sharp reversal in prediction market pricing.
MS NOW first reported that President Donald Trump is considering removing Patel in the coming months, citing three people familiar with the matter. Reuters later summarized the MS NOW report.
The New Republic reported that Patel had been under increasing scrutiny for a series of headline-grabbing missteps. The White House, however, moved quickly to knock down the reporting and called the claims “completely made up.”
The result was a whipsaw trading session on Kalshi that sent Patel’s odds of losing his job soaring into the high 20s before sliding back down as senior officials issued their rebuttals.
Prices spike, but swiftly retreat
Patel’s contract on Kalshi, Will Kash Patel leave his role as FBI Director this year?, spent much of the fall oscillating between 8 percent and 15 percent. That steady range broke violently Tuesday afternoon.
Within minutes of the MS NOW story circulating, the price shot upward and briefly traded above 25 percent, marking its highest level in months. Traders were reacting to a stack of controversies, including:
Patel’s social media commentary during ongoing investigations.
A government-funded jet trip for a date night with his 27-year-old girlfriend.
Allegations that he tapped a SWAT team for her security.
His firing of at least 30 FBI agents viewed as insufficiently loyal.
A Halloween-week claim that the bureau had thwarted a terror attack, which frustrated both DOJ and Trump aides.
TNR also reported turmoil inside the bureau, including an incident in July in which deputy director and former conservative commentator Dan Bongino skipped work in protest over how Patel and Attorney General Pam Bondi handled the release of the Epstein files.
For several hours, traders appeared to treat Patel’s removal as materially more likely than it had been just days ago.
White House denial
Then came the pushback.
According to The National News Desk, the White House quickly claimed that the report was false and insisted Patel remains “a critical member of the President’s team.” Press secretary Karoline Leavitt went further, calling the story “completely made up” on X and described an Oval Office photo session staged to show Patel at work with the president.
The tone of the denial, fast, personal, and unusually detailed, reset expectations on Kalshi. Patel’s contract slid back toward 11 to 13 percent, only slightly higher than where it began the day.
The chart now resembles a classic leak-driven spike followed by a credibility-driven retreat. The market is signaling that Patel is at higher risk but that a decision is not yet imminent.
Potential administration exits
Although Patel is not a Cabinet member, another Kalshi market offers context on how traders are pricing broader turnover risk. ‘Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?’ reflects broader trader expectations for churn across Trump’s senior ranks.
Pete Hegseth leads at 18 percent, followed by Howard Lutnick at 13 percent and Stephen Miran at 12 percent. Traders appear to view turnover as likely somewhere in Trump’s upper echelon. Patel’s repricing fits into that same pattern of uncertainty.
Takeaway
In short, markets seem to be pricing elevated risk rather than an assured outcome.
Patel’s firing odds surged above 25 percent after MS NOW reported that Trump is considering removing him.
A rapid White House denial erased most of the spike and brought the contract back down to roughly 13 percent.
Patel is now the highest-priced potential departure in Kalshi’s administration exit market.
Broader Cabinet exit markets show that traders expect additional turnover at senior levels, even though Patel’s status remains uncertain.
For now, prediction markets are signaling a slight rise in danger for Patel but not a definitive move.
Sources: Reuters, Nov. 25, 2025; The New Republic, Nov. 25, 2025; KOMO National News Desk, Nov. 25, 2025.
Image Source: Kash Patel (via Flickr)
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