Who’s next: Betting on Pro-Football's head coaching carousel

This weekend marks the start of the playoffs. It's an exciting time for fans, and an even more exciting time for players and coaches who managed to make the cut.

But for coaches who didn't make the cut, the end of the regular season might also be the end of the line.

So far this season, six pro-football coaches have been shown the door and cast out into the cruel world with little to no practical skills to fall back on. Sadly, some are already homeless, and all are struggling to make ends meet.

Here's a look at what's become of these recently fired coaches, and a breakdown of who their likely replacements will be according to Kalshi's "Head Coach" markets.

This is an opinion, not financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author, who uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on the platform.

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It's hard to feel sorry for Antonio Pierce, who was fired by the Las Vegas after just one season with a record of 4-13.

To be clear, I'm not saying he deserved to get fired after just one season. What I am saying is that owner Mark Davis runs through coaches like Deshaun Watson runs through massage therapists. Pierce had to have known how this would end.

So, who is next into the meat grinder?

Minnesota's defensive coordinator Brian Flores is the current favorite with a 27% chance of landing the gig. Deion Sanders and Mike Vrabel are also top contenders, at 21% and 19% respectively.

However, this is a fairly new market, so check back for changes once there's more trading volume.

Back in 2017, Doug Pederson led Philadelphia to their first championship.

But somehow, the fact that Pederson coached the Jacksonville to an Divisional championship in 2022 almost seems more impressive.

Sadly, since then, it's been all downhill, and on Monday, owner Shahid Khan kicked Pederson to the curb.

Currently, Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator Liam Coen has a 27% chance of replacing Pederson. Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson are also in the mix with odds at 22% and 19%, respectively.

This market is also fairly new, so check back for updates.

New England's owner Robert Kraft isn't the type of guy who will hand jobs out to just anyone (😉). That's why there were high hopes when the team hired Jerod Mayo. But unfortunately, after less than a year, he's already been let go after a 4-13 season.

Many feel that Mayo was unfairly fired, and should have been given more time to rebuild the team's roster. But either way, Mayo's last win cost New England their shot at next year’s No. 1 overall draft pick. So maybe the New York will hire him as a thank you.

Kalshi traders think the most likely replacement for Mayo is Mike Vrabel, who has an 84% chance. Detroit's offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is also in the running with odds of 15%.

As mentioned above, many argue Jerod Mayo should have been given more time after replacing Bill Belichick. But perhaps Dennis Allen's tenure at New Orleans is a convincing counterargument.

Allen replaced Sean Payton in 2022. And despite a losing first season record of 7-9, he was given a chance to turn the team around.

Fast forward to 2024, and Allen was fired mid-season after a seven-game losing streak.

Aaron Glenn is the current favorite to replace Allen, with odds of 30%. Joe Brady and Darren Rizzi (no relation to Sky Rizi), are also in contention with odds of 17% and 8%.

You can make a case that many of the coaches on this list were victims of circumstance, and that they were fired for things beyond their control.

I suppose you can make that same case for recently fired Chicago coach Matt Eberflus, in the sense that he had no control over his obvious lack of skill.

That said, he was actually a perfect fit for the Chicago, who have had only two coaches with winning records since Mike Ditka was fired back in 1992. And those two, Lovie Smith and Matt Nagy, were just barely above .500.

The current favorite to take the helm in Chicago is Detroit's offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who has a 42% chance. That makes sense, since he knows the Division so well.

Then again, since he knows the division so well, maybe he'll have enough sense to avoid getting mauled by the McCaskey family (happy 102nd birthday, Virginia), and leave the job for Brian Flores (15%), Pete Carroll (14%), or some other poor chump.

Last but not least on our list is former New York coach Robert Saleh. His tenure can only be described as disappointing, with an overall record of 20-36. But in all fairness, Aaron Rodgers' infamous first-game injury back in 2023 basically destroyed the entire season.

Nevertheless, earlier this season he was fired. However, he was quickly hired as an assistant with Green Bay, and is said to be interviewing for several head coaching jobs, including Jacksonville and Las Vegas.

But who will be hired to replace him in New York?

Former coach Rex Ryan clearly has his foot in the door (get it?), and has a one in four chance of landing the job. Aaron Glenn and Brian Flores are close behind, with 22% and 18%, respectively.

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