The last Waltz? Will anyone be fired for the Signal chat fiasco?

Earlier this month, journalist Jeffrey Goldberg was inadvertently added to a group chat on the Signal messaging app.

Most of us can relate. I still have flashbacks to the time a friend accidentally added his mom to our group chat. 

However, while my friend’s mom was given access to drunken stories and disgusting memes, Goldberg was given real-time access to texts from the highest echelons of the Trump administration, including operational details about an attack targeting terrorists in a civilian building.

That's much worse.

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This is an opinion, not financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author, who uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on the platform.

When the story broke, the Trump administration did what any rational actor would do: They vowed to make changes and hold people accountable.

Just kidding! They immediately downplayed everything and tried to discredit Goldberg, calling him “a loser” and “the bottom scum of journalists.”

In hindsight, we should have called my friend’s mom “bottom scum” when we found her on the chat.

Of course the problem is even if you think Goldberg is a loser with no credibility, you’re still left to wonder how such an untrustworthy fellow ended up on the list, not to mention why such high-ranking officials were using Signal in the first place. If anything, it makes the whole situation that much worse.

Now the question is who is responsible, and will they be held accountable for the blunder. And as far as Kalshi traders are concerned, the answer to that second question is probably no.

Since the story broke, the Trump administration has offered various, often contradictory explanations for what happened.

Trump himself has suggested that one of Waltz’s staffers may be responsible for adding Goldberg, but also left open the possibility that the mistake was the result of a “bad signal.”

If you’re wondering what “bad signal” means in this context, it’s important to remember that the President of the United States was born at a time when less than 50% of Americans had telephones in their homes, and is technologically illiterate.

Aside from the “bad staffer” and “bad signal” theories offered by Trump, other members of the administration are speculating that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz might be to blame.

One proponent of this intriguing theory is National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who freely admits that he is to blame. 

His name is on the damn invite:

“Look, a staffer wasn’t responsible,” Waltz said in a recent interview with Laura Ingraham. “I take full responsibility. I built the group and my job is to make sure everything is coordinated.”

But despite taking “full responsibility,” Waltz is still insinuating that Goldberg somehow hacked his way into the conversation.

"I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but of all the people out there, somehow this guy...he's the one that somehow gets on somebody's contact and then gets sucked into the group?” Waltz said, adding that Elon Musk and “the best technical minds” were looking into it.

If Elon and his team need a good place to start, they can check out Mike Waltz’s Venmo account, which was still public earlier this week, and showed numerous journalists in his contacts list (although to be fair, not Goldberg). Because why would a National Security Advisor set his own Venmo account to private?

At any rate, President Trump was supposedly angry with Waltz not only for the leak, but also for having Goldberg’s contact information in his phone. But publicly, Trump is continuing to show his support, and is afraid that firing him will come across as a victory for the media.

This explains why Waltz’s chances of being ousted are hovering around 20%, down from a high of 48% earlier in the week.

Aside from Waltz, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is also in the hot seat. While he’s probably not to blame for the group chat being compromised, many are questioning why he would share such sensitive information on Signal in the first place.

Hegseth himself has latched on to the fact that these were not, in fact, “war plans,” as The Atlantic claimed.

And technically speaking, that might be true. But whatever you want to call it, these messages certainly don’t seem like something you’d want to leak hours before a mission takes place.

Like Waltz, Trump is still standing behind Hegseth. Which explains why his odds of staying on for the rest of the year are currently at 75%.

But a one in four chance of being shown the door isn’t exactly good news, especially considering his odds of leaving were only 15% before the scandal broke.

The odds that Hegseth will be the first member of the administration to leave have also climbed to 21%, a dramatic jump from 4% earlier this month.

As mentioned above, Trump views holding Waltz or Hegseth accountable as a victory for the press and the Democrats. And that's understandable, since the Democrats are anxious for people to forget about that time their last Secretary of Defense went missing for days, or the time they spent four years pretending Joe Biden wasn't a dementia patient.But many Republicans seem to disagree, and are viewing this as a serious national security issue rather than a political scandal.

GOP senators, including Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker and Majority Leader John Thune, are calling for investigations. And both the Senate Intelligence and Armed Services committees are planning inquiries.

If you're trading these markets, it boils down to whether Senate Republicans are willing to defy Trump—and if they do, whether Trump is willing to risk looking weak to make the problem go away.

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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.