The recession rollercoaster rolls on

If you read this newsletter regularly, you're probably thinking, "Hey, didn't my son write about the recession market last week?"

Well, yeah, I did, Mom. And unfortunately, according to our markets, I'll probably be writing about this topic for a while.

Don't hate the player, hate the game.

(CLICK HERE TO TRADE OUR RECESSION AND ECON MARKETS.)

This is an opinion, not financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author, who uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on the platform.

Despite President Trump's last-minute "just kidding" tariff reprieve, Kalshi traders still price the chance of a recession in 2025 at 63%. The good news is that's down from a high of 70%.

The bad news? It dropped to nearly 52% after Trump's announcement, but quickly rebounded once traders digested the details.

Traders also think there's a nearly 30% chance that a recession has already begun (Q1 data won't be released until May), with a 20% chance it will begin in Q2.

But the U.S. isn't the only country with an elevated recession risk.

Odds of a recession in Germany by 2027 are currently at 65%.

As with the U.S., the odds of a recession hitting the U.K. are also at 63%.

A recession is also more likely than not in Japan, where traders currently price the odds at 58%.

Then there's China, the only country where President Trump left the full brunt of his tariffs in place.

Odds of a recession hitting the PRC have jumped in recent days, but they are still only at 36%.

When the country you're waging a trade war against has better odds of avoiding a recession than you, that can't be a good sign. Of course, there's always a question surrounding the reliability of Chinese economic numbers, but that's a topic for a better writer to cover.

Trump is reportedly asking for a call from Chinese President Xi to work out a deal. Xi, however, is supposedly unwilling to make the first move.

But even if the two were to strike a deal immediately, it might be too late to avoid a recession.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink recently told Bloomberg that the U.S. is either very close to a recession, or already in one.

If you think you know more than Larry, hit up our 2025 Recession market, where dollars are on sale for just $0.37.

If you think he’s right, now might be a good time to take the other side — and turn $0.63 into $1.00 before we all get laid off.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realOldTerryFollow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.