Voters in the Netherlands return to the polls in an early election triggered by the collapse of the ruling right-wing coalition government in June. The fall of the government was precipitated by Geert Wilders, dubbed by some the “Dutch Trump,” withdrawing his far-right PVV party from the government amid a contentious battle over his 10-point plan for a radical immigration crackdown, which included deportation of all Syrian refugees and restricting public services for illegal immigrants.
The PVV entered the Dutch government for the first time after the 2023 elections, in which they won the most seats (37) in the 150-seat House of Representatives in an election described at the time as the largest upset in Dutch politics since World War II. As the largest party, the PVV eventually formed a government with the center-right VVD and NSC parties, as well as the populist BBB.
In keeping with the right-wing surge across Europe in recent elections, immigration is again the key issue in this snap election; Wilders’ platform includes policies such as the complete refusal of all asylum requests and use of the army to guard its borders. While these specific proposals faced backlash, the PVV has succeeded in capitalizing on a long-simmering frustration with the overwhelmed Dutch immigration system, campaigning on slogans such as “This Is Your Country!” While other parties have pledged to restore decency to government and “defend democracy,” many have also hardened their stances on immigration, pledging to cut the number of asylum seekers that the Netherlands accepts.
For the entirety of the campaign, which began in June following the government’s collapse, Wilders and the PVV have been leading in the polls. Not enough to win anything close to a majority of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, but enough to finish with more seats than any other party, which could provide Wilders with more leverage during the anticipated lengthy coalition negotiations. Then, earlier today on election eve, a shock new poll from Ipsos showed the PVV finishing in third in the popular vote and tying for the most seats won with the left-wing GL/PvdA and liberal D66 parties. This poll caused the PVV to plummet from 73% to 41% chance to win the most seats in our Dutch election market, while the D66 party rose from 8% to 37% chance.
Unfortunately for Wilders, his decision to topple the government over a perceived lack of policy progress on immigration has rendered him – and his PVV – a political pariah this time around, with all other major parties and alliances ruling out joining him in a new coalition. That’s why, even as the PVV narrowly remains the most likely party to win the most seats, they are much less likely to enter government this time around.
Regardless of whether the PVV actually win the most seats, they are very likely to lose seats – around a third of their delegation in the Dutch House – in this election. That would dramatically weaken the PVV’s hand and could ultimately result in a leftward shift in the Dutch government, with the GL/PvdA and D66 potentially uniting with the center-right VVD and CDA parties to form government and shut the PVV (and Wilders) out of power.
As we go into election day with the race on a knife’s edge, the outcome of the vote – and the composition of the next Dutch government – very much remains anyone’s guess.
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