Three of the most exciting moments in Kalshi’s first year
Introduction: In this series, the Kalshi contracts team analyzes past interesting markets. This time, Will and Xavier list some of their favorite moments of Kalshi so far.
Six months of Kalshi markets are now in the books and this year has had some wild moments. Below are three notable moments that you may have missed!
Biden delays signing the debt ceiling expansion
Our markets asked if the debt ceiling would be raised or suspended before October 14, a deadline that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had warned must be met or else the U.S. would enter a catastrophic default. Traders were doubtful, however, and prices were at 19¢ on October 6 when suddenly a deal was announced, shooting prices up to 99¢. It was all but a done deal and Congress passed the misleadingly-titled Promoting Physical Activity for Americans Act on October 7 by a vote of 50-48. But Biden surprised observers by sitting on the bill for a week until October 14 itself, resulting in an eventual NO resolution.
Money floods in to trade on Hurricane Henri
Over two inches of rain came gushing into New York City in late August as part of Hurricane Henri. Our markets asked if more than 2.1 inches of rain would fall. After the initial deluge, there was… 2.07 inches. But more was forecast on the horizon, so prices continued to rise all the way up to 94 cents as rain clouds formed over Hudson Yards, then-home to the weather station used by the Exchange (it later changed to Central Park). But the rain was a mere drizzle and the market ultimately settled to No.
Geomagnetic storm market erupts at the last possible moment
Geomagnetic storms occur when the Sun emits a stream of highly ionized particles and sends them hurtling towards Earth. When those ions interact with the magnetosphere, they can cause a storm that can mess up satellites (and also cause an aurora seen as far south as New York). Severe storms, like the Carrington Event, have the potential to destroy electrical grids. While the storm in late November was much milder, it was nevertheless dramatic. After two weeks of quietude, there was but 3 hours to go before the Contract, which asked if there would be a G1 (lowest category) storm between November 15 and November 30. While most sensors were registering overall calm, a quick burst sent the registers just over the threshold needed to record a storm. Thanks to fantastic real-time forecasts from the NOAA, traders picked up on this activity before the data finally dropped, sending the price skyrocketing from 2¢ to 99¢. The contract ultimately resolved to Yes.