How Kalshi’s event markets work

Oddsshopper explains that Kalshi lets users trade yes/no contracts on real‑world events and everyday debates, with prices between 1 and 99 cents that pay $1 if the outcome occurs. The exchange is federally regulated by the CFTC and is legal across all states.

Checking in on Fed prediction markets

A Bloomberg newsletter comparing America’s lawyerly culture with China’s engineers noted that interest in Kalshi’s markets on Federal Reserve decisions shows how event contracts are being used to forecast macroeconomic outcomes.

Robinhood reactivates sports contracts

Front Office Sports reported that Robinhood is once again allowing users in New Jersey and Nevada to trade on sports event outcomes and is suing gaming regulators; the move adds competition to platforms like Kalshi.

FanDuel’s prediction markets ‘open the floodgates’

Legal Sports Report wrote that FanDuel’s entry into federally regulated prediction markets raised a wave of questions about the fast‑evolving space that includes Kalshi and Robinhood.

FanDuel chases Kalshi’s success

The Front Office Sports newsletter noted that FanDuel teamed with CME Group to offer event contracts on markets like gold and oil, describing the initiative as an attempt to chase Kalshi’s early success.

Polymarket targets fall U.S. launch

Covers reported that Polymarket planned to launch U.S. football trading by late August 2025, bringing competition to Kalshi and major sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings.

Kalshi faces regulatory scrutiny

Regulatory Oversight noted that Arizona, Illinois, Montana and Ohio issued cease‑and‑desist orders against Kalshi and that the platform is embroiled in litigation in New Jersey, reflecting the regulatory challenges facing prediction markets.

Kalshi’s history and offerings

SportsBettingDime described Kalshi as a federally regulated exchange launched in 2021 that offers event contracts across politics, sports, culture and more in 44 states and is backed by investors like Sequoia Capital, Charles Schwab and Y Combinator.

Kalshi taps crypto influencer John Wang

Coverage of Kalshi’s hiring of crypto influencer John Wang noted that he aims to bring prediction markets mainstream, signalling intensified competition in the space.

Kalshi hires John Wang to lead crypto

Bloomberg reported that Kalshi tapped influencer John Wang to head its crypto division as the platform expands into digital assets; Wang said he wants to mainstream prediction markets.

Kalshi’s new crypto head

Seeking Alpha noted that Kalshi hired social media influencer John Wang to spearhead its prediction marketplace’s crypto push and digital asset expansion.

Are event contracts gambling?

A Slate column argued that new sports event contracts offered by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket blur the line between gambling and investing; surveys have found that most Americans would classify such contracts as gambling.

Kalshi’s crypto division announcement

Cointelegraph quoted John Wang saying he intends to “bring prediction markets mainstream” as he takes over Kalshi’s digital assets arm.

Sports headlines mention Kalshi

NewsNation reported that Robinhood partnered with Kalshi to let users trade on college and pro football games; the piece added that some states have sued Kalshi for disguising sports betting as investment and explained how contract payouts differ for favorites and underdogs.

Trump Jr. invests in prediction markets

BeInCrypto reported that Donald Trump Jr. was investing millions in Polymarket while serving as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, demonstrating his influence across prediction market companies.

Kalshi hires 23-year-old influencer

Finance Magnates announced that Kalshi hired 23-year-old crypto entrepreneur and influencer John Wang to spearhead its expansion into digital assets.

Trump Jr. joins Polymarket’s board

A CDC Gaming brief highlighted that Donald Trump Jr.—already a strategic advisor to Kalshi—joined Polymarket’s advisory board, underscoring his involvement across rival prediction market platforms.

Trump Jr.’s investment and advisory roles

Front Office Sports wrote that Trump Jr.’s firm is investing an eight‑figure sum in Polymarket even as he remains a strategic advisor to Kalshi, raising potential conflicts of interest in the prediction market space.

John Wang leads prediction market revolution

A Pintu article hailed John Wang as spearheading a prediction market revolution at Kalshi through his new crypto strategy, positioning the platform for further innovation and growth.

Kalshi provides implied betting odds for Kelce-Swift engagement

Gaming America reported that Kalshi offered markets on whether Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift would marry before 2025, with implied odds around 13% for a wedding by 2026; the article also covered related markets such as halftime performance odds.

Markets bet on Anduril IPO outcome

Quiver Quantitative reported that Kalshi’s market on whether Discord (symbolic of high-tech firm Anduril) will IPO in 2025 recorded tens of thousands of contracts traded and implied a modest probability of passage; since opening, the market has seen hundreds of thousands of transactions and positions of open interest.

Ho-Chunk Nation sues Kalshi

Wisconsin Public Radio reported that the Ho‑Chunk Nation filed a federal lawsuit accusing Kalshi of false advertising and illegal sports betting in Wisconsin, with the tribe seeking monetary damages and an injunction to halt operations.

Underdog partners with Crypto.com

Esports.net reported that fantasy sports operator Underdog partnered with Crypto.com’s derivatives arm to offer sports event contracts in states where sports betting is illegal; the partnership could boost adoption of prediction markets and create competition for Kalshi.

Robinhood vs Kalshi prediction market

BreakingAC compared Robinhood and Kalshi’s approaches to prediction markets, examining how each platform frames event contracts and highlighting the competitive landscape.

Fox Business: Kalshi interview

Fox Business aired a segment discussing Kalshi’s platform, exploring how it allows everyday investors to trade event outcomes and comparing it to traditional betting or investing options.

The $100 million election bet

A Wall Street Journal live coverage card described a “$100 million election bet,” highlighting the scale of capital being allocated to prediction markets such as Kalshi as investors look to hedge political risk and profit from election outcomes.

Kalshi resumes election bets

CNBC reported that Kalshi resumed taking bets on U.S. election outcomes after a federal appeals court lifted a regulatory freeze, enabling the platform to continue offering political event contracts.

MIT grad’s election markets vision

The Boston Globe profiled a MIT graduate behind Kalshi who envisions election prediction markets as a way to democratize information and noted the platform’s legal battle to list political contracts.

Election gambling controversy

Politico detailed the regulatory battle over election prediction markets, noting that critics consider these products gambling while proponents argue they offer insight into voter sentiment; Kalshi faces legal challenges as it pushes for permission to list political contracts.

Betting on elections faces regulatory hurdles

Axios highlighted the regulatory hurdles facing election prediction markets such as Kalshi, describing how the CFTC and courts are weighing the legality of betting on congressional outcomes while the platform argues that such contracts offer hedging tools and public insight.

Judge’s ruling opens the door to election betting

The Wall Street Journal reported that a federal judge’s ruling cleared the way for Kalshi to offer election betting contracts by halting a regulatory ban, marking a significant win for the platform and its investors.

Why Kalshi’s court victory matters

CoinDesk argued that Kalshi’s court victory is important not only for the platform but also for the future of political prediction markets, as it could set a precedent for how regulators approach these products and determine whether they are legitimate hedging tools or gambling instruments.

Betting on U.S. Congress outcomes green-lit

Bloomberg reported that a judge green-lit Kalshi’s plan to offer prediction markets on U.S. congressional elections, signaling a potential shift in how regulators view event contracts and raising questions about the blending of finance and political gambling.

Judge clears way for election betting

The Hill wrote that a federal judge’s ruling allowed Kalshi to proceed with offering election-related contracts, but noted that regulators may still appeal and that the broader debate about whether event contracts constitute gambling continues.

Trade everything – opinion essay

A Pirate Wires essay contended that prediction markets like Kalshi will reshape how society assigns value to information and argued for a future where everything is tradable, while acknowledging regulatory and moral challenges.

Kalshi CEO on CFTC crackdown

In a Bloomberg TV interview, Kalshi’s CEO discussed the company’s response to a CFTC crackdown on event contracts, emphasising that the platform offers regulated hedging products rather than unregulated gambling.

Prediction markets for Bitcoin and Ether

Cointelegraph reported that Kalshi launched new event contracts allowing traders to bet on whether Bitcoin or Ether will reach certain price levels by specific dates, offering a unique hedging tool for crypto investors and speculators.

Prediction markets as investments

Economist Writing Everyday argued that prediction markets can serve as investment vehicles, allowing participants to hedge against events like inflation or natural disasters; the article cited Kalshi’s regulatory status as evidence of the legitimacy of such markets.

Hedging crypto startups’ regulatory risk

CoinDesk reported that investment firm Paradigm believes prediction markets could help crypto startups hedge regulatory risks by offering contracts that pay out based on regulatory outcomes; the story cited Kalshi as an example of a regulated platform that could facilitate such hedges.

Susquehanna starts trading desk for event contracts

Bloomberg reported that trading firm Susquehanna International Group established a dedicated desk to trade Kalshi’s event contracts, signalling growing institutional interest in prediction markets and potential for deeper liquidity.

Inflation release and prediction markets

Forbes discussed how prediction markets like Kalshi could be used to hedge inflation risk ahead of CPI releases, noting that investors are increasingly turning to event contracts to manage economic uncertainty.

Betting on university presidents’ ousting

The Stanford Review wrote that after protest controversies at Ivy League universities, prediction markets are forecasting the ouster of presidents at Penn, Harvard and MIT; the article ties the story to Kalshi’s markets and the broader debate over betting on academic leadership changes.

Contrary research report on Kalshi

Venture firm Contrary published a research report analyzing Kalshi’s business model, market potential and regulatory environment, offering investors an in-depth look at the prediction market startup.

Betting on OpenAI’s CEO future

The San Francisco Standard reported that Kalshi traders made bets on whether Sam Altman would remain CEO of OpenAI after his ouster, illustrating how prediction markets can provide real-time insight into corporate leadership outcomes.

Behind the scenes: Kalshi secrets

PlayUSA explored how Kalshi manages content and marketing to attract traders to its futures exchange, revealing strategies that have helped the platform stand out in the crowded prediction market landscape.

Election betting and regulation

The New York Times examined the controversy around election betting, citing Kalshi’s legal battle to offer congressional contracts and exploring how regulators and politicians view the risks and benefits of such markets.

Fox Business: prediction market segment

Fox Business hosted a segment discussing Kalshi and other prediction markets, debating whether these platforms constitute gambling or legitimate financial products.

Election betting upstart sues the government

An episode of a podcast profiled Kalshi as an election betting upstart that is challenging government regulators, offering listeners an inside look at the company’s founders and legal strategy.

Kalshi sues the CFTC

CFO Brew detailed Kalshi’s lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over the regulator’s refusal to approve election betting contracts, highlighting the high stakes for both the startup and the future of prediction markets.

Prediction market startup sues CFTC

Reuters reported that Kalshi filed a lawsuit against the CFTC to block the agency from preventing it from offering congressional election contracts, arguing that the regulator exceeded its authority and hindered free markets.

Trading startup sues regulator

The Wall Street Journal chronicled Kalshi’s legal battle with the CFTC as it seeks to launch an election betting market, noting that hedge funds and other investors could bet up to $100 million on congressional outcomes through the platform.

Five things to know – prediction markets

Bloomberg’s daily newsletter highlighted the rising popularity of prediction markets and noted that Kalshi is becoming a favored platform for investors seeking to hedge political and economic risk.

Govt shutdown may disrupt CPI data

MarketWatch noted that a potential government shutdown could delay the release of CPI data, which would complicate inflation trading on platforms like Kalshi; traders may seek event contracts to hedge against the uncertainty.

Election gambling controversy

Bloomberg Law observed that U.S. regulators generally frown on election gambling but argued that prediction markets can serve the public interest by aggregating collective wisdom and providing probabilities on political outcomes.

Congress betting controversy

The New York Times reported on the debate surrounding Kalshi’s bid to allow betting on congressional control, quoting critics who warn that such markets could incentivize corruption and supporters who say they improve forecasting accuracy.

Hedge funds eye $100M election bets

Bloomberg reported that under Kalshi’s plan, hedge funds and other investors could place bets totaling $100 million on U.S. elections, raising concerns about the scale and influence of institutional money in political prediction markets.

Startups woo hedge funds to event contracts

Bloomberg described how startups like Kalshi are wooing hedge funds to bet millions on real events such as economic data releases and corporate results, aiming to create a new asset class for institutional investors.

The future of futures

An LA Review of Books essay reflected on the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and debated their potential cultural impact, comparing them to science fiction futures and questioning whether they could transform our relationship with risk and knowledge.

Stock markets, debt ceiling and risk of default

The New York Times explored how political brinkmanship over the U.S. debt ceiling could impact stock and bond markets, noting that traders on platforms like Kalshi were betting on whether Congress would avert a default.

Online trading platform for yes/no questions

The Wall Street Journal announced that Kalshi’s online trading platform would allow investors to bet on yes/no questions about real events, expanding the range of markets beyond the initial roster and attracting interest from retail and institutional traders alike.

YouTube: What is Kalshi?

A 2021 YouTube video explained how Kalshi works, showing how event markets function and highlighting the platform’s potential to democratize hedging and speculation.

Voters bet on election outcomes (2022)

Politico reported in 2022 that voters were increasingly betting on election outcomes via platforms like Kalshi, raising questions about whether allowing political markets undermines the integrity of the democratic process.

Inside the fight to legalize election betting (2022)

Politico investigated the efforts by Kalshi and its allies to legalize election betting ahead of the 2022 midterms, chronicling lobbying efforts, legal challenges and the role of rival platforms like PredictIt.

Why Charles Schwab invested in Kalshi

The Investors Podcast interviewed Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara and discussed why billionaire Charles Schwab invested in the startup, exploring the company’s business model, regulatory path and growth potential.

Markets predict negative GDP in Q2 (2022)

In a 2022 interview, Kalshi’s co-founder said that prediction markets were pricing an 80% chance of negative GDP growth in Q2, showing how event contracts could provide early signals about economic data releases.

Kalshi lets people bet on anything

A 2019 Forbes profile introduced Kalshi as a MIT startup enabling users to bet on virtually any event, from macroeconomic indicators to social phenomena, emphasising the company’s vision to create a new asset class.

Stock market of the world lets you bet on anything

A Bloomberg feature dubbed Kalshi the “stock market of the world,” noting that its platform allows people to bet on anything and explaining how the company navigated regulatory hurdles to offer event contracts in the U.S.

The world according to Luana Lopes Lara

The New York Sun profiled Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara and how her upbringing in Brazil influenced the company’s mission; it also described how prediction markets can help society find truth in uncertain times.

Kalshi’s bet on trading future (video)

Bloomberg TV looked at Kalshi’s plans to redefine trading by turning questions about the future into investable contracts, offering viewers a glimpse into how the platform could change finance.

Investors vote yes/no on events (2021)

CNBC explained how Kalshi allows investors to vote “yes” or “no” on major events such as inflation releases or policy decisions, providing a tool for hedging portfolios against specific outcomes.

Event markets reflect inflation and GDP (video)

In a CNBC interview, Kalshi’s CEO discussed how event markets were pricing inflation, GDP growth and even pop culture events like Olivia Rodrigo’s awards, illustrating the breadth of the platform’s offerings.

30 Under 30 recognition for founders (2021)

Forbes recognised Kalshi’s founders among its 2022 30 Under 30 list for their contributions to fintech and prediction markets, noting the company’s potential to disrupt traditional finance.

Founders explain building the exchange (2021)

Yahoo News interviewed Kalshi’s founders about how they built the exchange, discussing the regulatory challenges they faced and their vision for using event contracts to democratize access to hedging tools.

YouTube: Trade everything (video)

A 2021 YouTube video explained how Kalshi’s vision of “trading everything” could transform financial markets and noted the regulatory milestones the company reached to launch its event contracts.

Founders recognised (alt link)

An alternative Forbes link again highlighted Kalshi’s founders’ recognition in the 30 Under 30 Finance list, underscoring their influence in shaping the future of event trading.

Founders talk stress & productivity

In a Forbes video, Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour discussed how he manages stress and stays productive while running a high-growth startup, offering insights into the personal side of building a prediction market company.

Kalshi lets people bet on anything (alt link)

A duplicate link to the 2019 Forbes profile again explained how Kalshi planned to let people bet on anything, using event markets as a novel financial product.

Inflation & GDP interview (video)

Another YouTube interview with Kalshi’s CEO focused on how event markets signalled inflation trends and GDP predictions, highlighting the utility of these contracts for macroeconomic analysis.

Series A funding announcement

Businesswire announced that Kalshi raised $30 million in Series A funding led by Sequoia Capital, providing the capital needed to build its platform and navigate the regulatory process.

The exchange for everything

Luckbox Magazine described Kalshi as “the exchange for everything,” highlighting its potential to become a ubiquitous financial product for hedging and speculation across everyday events.

MIT grads want to democratize hedging

Institutional Investor profiled Kalshi’s founders, who were interns at Goldman Sachs and Citadel, and wrote about their mission to democratize hedging by allowing ordinary people to trade event contracts.

Prediction markets price Powell’s second term

A 2021 MarketWatch article noted that prediction markets priced a 76% likelihood that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell would be reappointed for a second term, illustrating how event contracts provide insights into policy decisions.