007 odds: Who will be the next James Bond?

Good afternoon, traders.

If there’s one thing Hollywood loves, it's movie franchises. In the last 10 years, the biggest money makers have consistently been big blockbuster franchises. For evidence, just look at Star Wars and Marvel.

But one of everyone's favorite franchises, James Bond, is currently in limbo. The previous lead, Daniel Craig, has retired from the role, but Amazon just picked up the rights to make the next movie. They have the director selected, but now they have to figure out the cast.

As it happens, Kalshi has a whole slew of markets related to the James Bond franchise, including next Bond actor, next Bond villain, next Bond girl, just to name a few.

Let’s break down who that might be.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the James Bond franchise or Amazon MGM Studios.}

If you’ve been on X in the past few days, you’ve probably seen that the internet is in a stir over the next James Bond movie. The new movie, currently referred to as Bond 26, has been picked up by Amazon MGM Films and is expected to be released sometime in 2028. The drama really lies in who is going to carry on the legacy of Bond.

The last to play James Bond, Daniel Craig, is still loved by many, but unfortunately he is just too old to keep going. He’s going to be 60 in less than two years, so it's about time to pass the torch.

But these are hard shoes to fill. James Bond is one of the most loved movie franchises in history, and the actors who play him are always widely contested. I’m sure basically everyone that's reading this has been involved in at least one argument over what actor portrayed Bond the best (My dad swears by Connery, but being a Millennial, my heart is with Brosnan).

Interestingly, the studio has leaked names of actors it will be screening for the role. Our guess is this was intentional. They obviously need to do castings to see who can make the cut, but they likely also want to quietly get the public's take. You really don't want to mess up this casting and anger lifelong fans. By leaking the names, they can see who the public likes and dislikes.

Now, let's run through the current top 3 picks according to our markets.

You may be asking yourself, “Who the heck is this guy?”, but just recently his rank shot up in our charts. It may seem odd for him to be rated this highly, but recent rumors emerged about leaked insider reports calling him “The One”.

Currently ranked second, he is known for his roles in Fantastic Beasts and Masters of the Air. In addition to these, he just got married to singer Dua Lipa earlier this year. The fact that he’s basically married to a Bond girl may be driving his ranking.

Lowden being in contention is basically a given. He is already known for playing a lead role as an MI6 spy in the Apple TV series Slow Horses. If they're trying to play it safe, he's the pick.

Aside from an incredibly charismatic lead, all Bond movies need two other main components: A memorable theme song and a captivating villain. In terms of the theme song, the majority of people are banking on Olivia Dean.

The singer-songwriter has absolutely blown up in the past three years, making her a household name. Now she may be first in the market's eye, but we think there's a pick slightly down the list that's worth considering: Dua Lipa.

As we stated earlier, Dua Lipa recently married Callum Turner, one of the top Bond picks. If he gets cast as Bond, it’s easy to see her getting selected. A husband and wife both playing a part in the next Bond franchise is just free publicity, and when was the last time Hollywood turned that down? 

Moving on to the Villain. Little has been said publicly about who will play the villain in the upcoming movie, but as it stands, Cillian Murphy seems to be the top pick. This doesn't surprise us at all.

First of all, he just kind of looks like a villain. Second, he proved himself to be able to play an incredible bad guy in Batman Begins (2005). And third, the screenwriter for the upcoming Bond film is the creator of the hit series Peaky Blinders, which Murphy starred in.

Who knows if that's relevant, but there's absolutely no denying he'd make a good pick. 

Rounding out the casting picture is the Bond girl market, and Kalshi traders have a clear favorite: Anya Taylor-Joy sits at 65%, a commanding lead over Margaret Qualley at 29% and Sydney Sweeney at 19%. Taylor-Joy has had one of the more remarkable runs in Hollywood over the past few years, and her profile fits the role.

We also have markets on:

Regardless of who gets selected as the next Bond, we're hyped for this movie. With Denis Villeneuve directing the film and Steven Knight writing the screenplay, this has to be good. Let us know who your picks are for the casting, and if you're confident, go lock in a trade. We'll see you next week.

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with the James Bond franchise or Amazon MGM Studios.}