2026 Emmy odds: Who's the favorite to win each major category?

The 2026 Emmy nominations are out, and traders are already trying to predict who will take home one of those little gold statues on Sept. 14.

Deadline Hollywood reported that HBO's The Pitt received 25 nominations, while Hacks earned 24, the most of any comedy series. Both are also leading their respective Kalshi markets.

Speaking of Kalshi markets, here’s a look at what traders are forecasting for this September’s Emmy ceremony.

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Traders give Hacks a 53% chance of winning Outstanding Comedy Series. Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay isn’t far behind at 7% followed by Margo’s Got Money Troubles at 10%.

The defending Emmy winner The Pitt, starring Noah Wyle, is expected to win the award again for Outstanding Drama Series.  

The Pitt tops the market at 74%, ahead of A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms at 15% and Pluribus at 11%.

There’s also a clear favorite in the Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Emmy market. Matthew Rhys, who was nominated for his performance in Widow’s Bay, is priced at 75%, followed by Shrinking’s Jason Segel at 15% and Only Murders in the Building’s Martin Short at 13%.

HBO’s Hacks isn’t just leading the Emmy with the most nominations for a comedy series. Its star is leading in the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series market.

Jean Smart leads the market at 83%, followed by Lisa Kudrow for her lead role on HBO’s The Comeback at 11%, and Elle Fanning for Margo’s Got Money Troubles at 3%.

Noah Wyle has a clear lead in the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series Emmy market for his work on The Pitt.

Wyle carries the highest price at 88%, followed by Mark Ruffalo for his role on HBO’s Task at 42%, and Sterling K. Brown for his role on the Hulu series Paradise at 12%.

Rhea Seehorn also has a very clear lead in the market for the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series category.

Seehorn, who is nominated for the Apple TV series Pluribus, holds the lead at 66%, followed by Zendaya for HBO’s Euphoria at 19%, and Keri Russell for the Netflix series The Diplomat at 16%.

Things are a little closer in the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series Emmy nomination market.

The HBO dark comedy DTF St. Louis leads the market at 54%, followed by the Netflix series Beef at 34% and FX’s Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette at 24%.

The 78^th Primetime Emmy Awards will air live on Sept. 14 on NBC and the streaming service Peacock.

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