2026 US Open women's odds: Can anyone stop Sabalenka?

The final Grand Slam of the 2026 tennis season is inching closer, with first round matches slated to begin on Sunday.

Two-time defending champion and current world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is the tournament favorite at 23% according to Kalshi traders, but contenders for her crown, like Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, are lurking close behind.

But in a deep women's draw, a handful of other contenders are present, hoping to enter their names into the title conversation.

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It is her crown to lose.

Despite a shaky summer of tennis, Kalshi traders make Aryna Sabalenka, the two-time defending US Open champion, the clear favorite in the US Open Women's Singles Winner market. In her last two trips to New York, Sabalenka has taken the crown with relative ease, dropping just one set each year on her path to victory.

Should she find a way to take home the US Open trophy again, she would become the first woman since Serena Williams (2012-2014) to win the event three times in a row.

But Sabalenka is not alone near the top.

American Coco Gauff is priced at 16% and is rounding into form, taking down the Cincinnati Open last week in a final warmup before the final Grand Slam event. In addition to holding the second best odds to win the event, Gauff maintains another notable distinction: the last woman to beat Sabalenka in New York. She defeated the Belarusian in three sets in 2023 to claim her first ever Grand Slam title.

The only other woman priced above 10% by Kalshi traders is former US Open champion Iga Swiatek, who holds odds of 15% to reclaim the US Open trophy.

Much like Gauff, Swiatek has been searching for her best level during the 2026 season, but started to put together the results in recent weeks, winning the Toronto Masters 1000 level event and reaching the semifinals in Cincinnati.

The trio's odds stayed relatively flat after the draw was revealed, but it was Sabalenka who may have benefitted most. The reigning champion's half of the draw has just two other players that Kalshi traders price at 5% or better odds to win the title before the tournament begins: Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk.

Gauff and Swiatek would ultimately need to battle each other, and a host of other contenders, prior to squaring off with Sabalenka in a potential final.

While only three women are priced at 10% or more to claim the crown, a deep group of potential contenders falls just behind, including former Grand Slam champions Naomi Osaka, Elena Rybakina, and Mirra Andreeva. Firmly entrenched alongside the trio is Jessica Pegula, a 2024 US Open finalist who is coming off a strong start to her hardcourt swing having reached the finals in Washington and Cincinnati.

Even prior to the draw, the storylines surrounding this quartet were robust. Pegula and Rybakina are both fighting for a chance to become world No. 1, Osaka is looking to reclaim her spot atop the game's elite, and Andreeva is trying to prove she is the face of a budding youth movement after clinching her first Grand Slam title this year.

But while traders price them all within striking distance, there are also questions for each.

Pegula has never won a Grand Slam, Rybakina was forced to retire from her quarterfinal match in Cincinnati with an injury, Osaka did not play Cincinnati at all, citing fatigue, and Andreeva is 4-4 in her last eight matches since Roland Garros, failing to advance beyond the fourth round in any of her preparatory events.

Further complicating matters is the fact that Rybakina, Osaka, and Andreeva all find themselves in the same half of the draw, which happens to hold Gauff and Swiatek.

That has reflected most notably in Osaka and Rybakina's odds, which have fallen since the draw was revealed. The path to victory for the pair could see them play each other in the fourth round, with the winner then needing to defeat a potential lineup of Swiatek, Andreeva/Gauff, and Sabalenka, in succession.

While the bottom half of the draw dukes it out, Pegula would not need to square off with a player pre-tournament priced above 5% until the semifinals, where she may have to face Marta Kostyuk (5%) or Sabalenka.

After the aforementioned quarter, just Kostyuk, Alexandra Eala, and reigning finalist Amanda Anisimova hold odds of at least 3% before the tournament begins. Kostyuk finds herself in Sabalenka's path, while Eala and Anisimova are placed in the bottom half of the draw.

Kalshi traders repriced the odds for three women from the top half of the draw shortly after the reveal on Thursday.

Karolina Muchova and Linda Noskova, the finalists at Wimbledon earlier this year, both saw their odds jump to 4% shortly after paths were revealed.

The pair come with their own question marks heading into the event.

After winning Wimbledon, Noskova was unable to make it beyond the fourth round in singles in either of the warm-up events on North American soil. Nevertheless, she still found success on the hard courts, winning the doubles draw at the Cincinnati Open with Marie Bouzkova.

Muchova on the other hand did not play singles in any warm-up event after having a small surgical procedure following the Wimbledon final. She too though has been succeeding on the doubles court, winning the US Open Mixed Doubles final on Wednesday with Jakub Mensik.

Last but not least, Elina Svitolina's odds got a bump on Thursday. The Ukrainian also played in the US Open Mixed Doubles event with husband Gael Monfils, perhaps assuaging any fears about her condition after she withdrew from Cincinnati with a lingering ankle injury.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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Image Source: Keith Allison

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