Tuesday is Election Day in the Last Frontier, with voters across Alaska heading to the polls to cast their primary ballots. Among the many primaries is the race to replace Governor Mike Dunleavy, who is term-limited following his second term. Alaska employs a nonpartisan primary ballot, with the top four candidates advancing to the general election in November.
The gubernatorial election in November will employ ranked-choice voting. Maine and Alaska are currently the only two states to employ ranked-choice voting in statewide elections. In total, 17 candidates will be on Tuesday's ballot, the majority of which identify with the Republican Party.
Tom Begich, who was defeated in the 2018 gubernatorial election by Mike Dunleavy, leads the pack of candidates in odds to advance to the general election with a 98% chance. Begich, who currently does not serve in an elected position, was the former minority leader for the Democrats in the Alaska State Senate.
His nephew currently holds the state's lone seat in the House of Representatives as a Republican. Begich has emerged as the top contending Democrat, with Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins following shortly after with an 87% chance of advancing to the general election.
The Republican side is much more crowded than the Democratic side, with double-digit candidates looking to advance on Tuesday. Bernadette Wilson, a conservative media personality, leads the Republicans in odds to advance with a 97% chance of placing in the top four on Tuesday.
Dave Bronson, the former mayor of Anchorage, will look to make the move to the state capital of Juneau. His odds of advancing to the general election currently sit at 57%. Also in the mix for the Republican Party are Treg Taylor, former Alaska Attorney General, and Click Bishop, a former Alaska state senator. They have a 29% and 17% chance to advance, respectively.
The unique format of the Alaska primary system makes for interesting politicking between candidates and parties. Candidates who advance to the general election have until August 31 to drop out of the race, meaning each party could have just one candidate on the ballot by the time the November election rolls around.
Republican frontrunner Bernadette Wilson called for Republican candidates to unite behind one candidate come November. However, none have agreed to do so yet. Currently, Democrats have a narrow 51% chance of flipping the governor's seat blue. Regardless, Tuesday's primaries should be just the start of a fascinating campaign sprint to November.
Kalshi markets now predict:
51% chance Democrats flip the Alaska governor's seat in November
98% chance Tom Begich advances from Tuesday's primary
97% chance Bernadette Wilson advances from Tuesday's primary
87% chance Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advances from Tuesday's primary
57% chance Dave Bronson advances from Tuesday's primary
29% chance Treg Taylor advances from Tuesday's primary
17% chance Click Bishop advances from Tuesday's primary
Follow William Hoey on X: @therealWillHoey | Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image source: The Alaska Landmine
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