Kalshi's Alaska Senate market showed little movement following a Justice Department lawsuit challenging the potential certification of a narrow election loss by Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Kalshi's Alaska Senate winner market shows Democrat Mary Peltola at 75%, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 27%, and independent candidate Daniel J. Sullivan at 1%.
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Certification lawsuit
Alaska's Senate race has drawn national attention amid the battle for control of the chamber. Now, a Justice Department lawsuit has introduced a potential legal dispute over certification of the election results.
The Associated Press reported that the Trump Administration filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification of the outcome of Alaska’s U.S. Senate race if Dan Sullivan doesn’t win back his seat.
The lawsuit contends that the placement of Daniel J. Sullivan, a candidate who decided to run on his own in the Alaska Senate race, threatens “the integrity of the 2026 Senate election in Alaska.”
“The lawsuit Thursday by Republican President Donald Trump’s Department of Justice in federal court in Alaska demands that the state be blocked from certifying a Peltola win if Daniel J. Sullivan remains on the ballot,” The AP reported.
The Washington Post reported that the lawsuit alleges that Republican Dan J. Sullivan Jr.’s candidacy is “a bid to mislead supporters of Sen. Sullivan into voting for the wrong candidate.”
“They asked a federal judge to bar the state from certifying the race’s results should the senator lose by a margin less than the number of voters that his same-named challenger receives,” The Post reported. “In that scenario, the department said, the court should investigate whether that result was tainted by voter confusion.”
Dan Sullivan’s campaign has not addressed the senator’s thoughts on the recent legal intervention.
“We’ll let the DOJ complaint run its course,” campaign spokesman Nate Adams told The AP. “Alaskans can tell the difference between a Democrat sideshow and Senator Sullivan’s strong record of delivering for Alaska.”
Devan Barber, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, called the lawsuit a brazen attempt to overturn an election before the ballots have even been cast.
“Donald Trump knows that Dan Sullivan is going to lose the election, so now his Department of Justice is filing a sham lawsuit to overturn the will of Alaska voters and steal an election when he loses,” Barber told The AP.
Attorney General Todd Blanche said the day before the DOJ filed its lawsuit that his office does not intend to interfere with election outcomes, but he couldn’t rule out every scenario.
“It is not DOJ’s intention to – and it’s never our intention to – improperly interfere with elections or the state certification process,” Blanche said, according to The Post. “But, you know, to say there’s no circumstances that we would ever do that – of course, I’m not going to say that.”
For now, the Kalshi market continues to reflect roughly the same price as before the legal challenge was filed.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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