Voters in Alaska will head to the polls on Tuesday to cast their primary votes ahead of November's general election, including for the Alaska Senate seat, which will be one of the most closely watched Senate races of the election cycle.
Democrats have circled the Last Frontier as a possible seat to flip in their path to taking a majority in the Senate. Currently, the Democratic Party has a 54% chance of flipping the seat.
However, both parties must navigate the unique, nonpartisan Alaska primary, in which the top four candidates advance to the general election, with August 31 being the deadline for any candidates to drop out.
Current Democratic frontrunner Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman for the state, leads the field with a 99% chance of advancing to the general election. In 2022, Peltola won the state's primary and went on to win both the special and general elections for Alaska's lone House seat, defeating Nicholas Begich and Sarah Palin in both contests.
However, after two Republican candidates dropped out following the 2024 primary in a show of party unity, Peltola lost the 2024 general election to Begich. Peltola is closely followed by incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan, who has a 94% chance of advancing to the general election.
While Peltola and Sullivan are the frontrunners for their respective parties, a slew of other candidates will also appear on Tuesday's ballots looking to shake up the general election come November. Dan J. Sullivan (not to be confused with the incumbent senator) is a retired schoolteacher who has come under fire from Republicans including President Trump, who labeled him a "sham" candidate. The Department of Justice even investigated his candidacy after President Trump accused Democrats of trickery to confuse voters.
Sullivan and the Democratic Party deny those allegations. Dan J. Sullivan has a 55% chance of advancing past Tuesday's primary. Behind him is Dustin Darden, a paralegal from Anchorage who last ran unsuccessfully for the Alaska House of Representatives as a Democrat in 2024. Now on a statewide ballot as a Republican, Darden has a 54% chance of advancing to the general election.
Because of the nature of the nonpartisan primary, several minor-party candidates will attempt to reach November's ballot. Scott Kohlhaas, the leading Libertarian candidate, has a 28% chance to advance, while his Green Party counterpart Richard Grayson has a 28% chance to advance. Grayson is also on the ballot for the Green Party in Arizona's 5th congressional district.
While incumbent Dan S. Sullivan and Mary Peltola lead the way in the race for the Alaska Senate seat, the remaining two spots on the ballot will be quite consequential come November. With Alaska being the third-least populous state in the union, the two additional candidates on the ballot have the potential to shift the race and play spoiler in a statewide election that will have ripple effects across national politics.
Kalshi markets now predict:
54% chance Democrats flip the Alaska Senate seat in November
99% chance Mary Peltola advances from Tuesday's primary
94% chance Dan S. Sullivan advances from Tuesday's primary
55% chance Dan J. Sullivan advances from Tuesday's primary
54% chance Dustin Darden advances from Tuesday's primary
28% chance Scott Kohlhaas (Libertarian) advances from Tuesday's primary
28% chance Richard Grayson (Green) advances from Tuesday's primary
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Image source: The Alaska Landmine
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