Arizona primary odds: four races to watch today

Voters in Arizona will head to the polls on Tuesday for primary elections that will set the stage for a hotly contested battle in November. With no Arizona senators up for re-election and the governor's race all but set, most of the action in the Grand Canyon State on Tuesday will occur in House of Representatives races.

Current Fifth District Representative Andy Biggs reached a 99% chance of winning the GOP nomination on July 10th and is heavily favored to run against incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs in November. Hobbs is one of two Democratic governors up for re-election in states that Trump carried in 2024. The market currently gives her an 81% chance of holding off the GOP challenger.

As in a presidential cycle, much of the attention will be focused on Maricopa County and Arizona's 1st Congressional District. Incumbent GOP Congressman David Schweikert dropped his re-election bid to launch a run at the governor's mansion. Former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, with a 90% chance of winning it. Joseph Chaplik, who resigned from the Arizona House of Representatives to focus on campaigning for the seat, has a 10% chance of beating out Feely for the nomination.

A slew of candidates will be on the Democratic ballot, headlined by former Arizona State Representative Amish Shah, who lost to Schweikert in the 2024 general election and has a 70% chance of appearing on the ballot again in 2026. Former broadcast journalist Marlene Galán-Woods, who also ran for the nomination in 2024, picked up a major endorsement last week from Senator Mark Kelly. The market gives her a 30% chance of winning the nomination.

In Arizona's deep-red fifth district, two combative Republicans are locked in a primary fight for the right to cruise to victory in November. Former sheriff Mark Lamb secured the crucial Trump endorsement and will try to ride it past a string of sex scandals the Arizona Republic has reported throughout the campaign. Lamb currently has an 87% chance of winning the nomination. His challenger, GOP businessman Daniel Keenan, has poured more than $1.6 million of his own money into the campaign but has just a 13% chance of defeating the Trump-endorsed Lamb.

In the neighboring fourth district, a Democratic stronghold, incumbent Greg Stanton will look to hold off a progressive challenger. Self-proclaimed democratic socialist Kai Newkirk saw a bump in his odds in June following a wave of progressive wins in New York City primaries. That bump was short-lived, however, after a number of key endorsements for Newkirk were pulled over concerning behavior. Newkirk has just a 7% chance of defeating incumbent Stanton, who holds a 93% chance of winning renomination.

KPOW moved slightly toward Republicans this week as markets grew more confident in the GOP's odds of winning the presidency in 2028, though Democrats still hold the edge. Separately, Republicans held their slight edge on Senate control, while Democrats extended their already substantial lead in House odds for November.

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