As Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo left the network Thursday, her odds swung sharply on Kalshi's market for President Donald Trump's next press secretary, surging as high as 36% before on the record denials sent her price tumbling to single digits, then recovering again as the market continued to churn.
The market for the next press secretary now shows Anna Kelly leading at 25%, followed by Bartiromo at 18% and CNN commentator Scott Jennings at 12%. Bartiromo's price has moved by double digits multiple times in a matter of hours, among the sharpest swings Kalshi traders have seen on this market so far.
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Bartiromo and Fox Business
Kelly and Jennings had been leading the market before Bartiromo's departure was announced. Bartiromo subsequently jumped to 36%, moving ahead of both candidates, before falling behind them as reporting emerged pushing back on the press secretary speculation. Her price has since climbed back above Jennings, though it remains behind Kelly.
Mediaite’s Joe DePaolo reported that Fox News announced the anchor’s departure in a press release.
“We thank Maria for her work over the last 12 and a half years and wish her all the best on her next chapter,” the press release said.
Bartiromo hosted the Fox Business show Mornings with Maria, which will be renamed Mornings with Fox Business and feature a rotating lineup of hosts.
While Fox did not give a reason for Bartiromo's departure, some reports characterized the move as a firing. Deadline Hollywood’s Dominic Patten wrote that Fox “pink slipped” Bartiromo from her anchor chair effective today.
“In very much the same tone as Fox’s sudden tossing of Tucker Carlson back in 2023, there was no reason given Thursday for Bartiromo’s equally sudden exit,” Patten wrote. “The longtime small screen host has not said anything on her social feeds or otherwise.”
Bartiromo has not publicly addressed her departure. Patten also noted speculation that she could be headed to the White House, although his sources said she had not landed a job there.
“Bartiromo’s ouster from Fox does not have to do with the ex-CNBC star moving to another network, I hear,” Patten wrote. “The Fox departure also doesn’t come from Bartiromo scoring a plum White House gig, sources tell me – at least not yet. There has been speculation from many quarters that Bartiromo could be named as buddy Trump’s new press secretary.”
It’s not just the timing of Bartiromo’s ouster that’s making traders speculate about her becoming the new press secretary for the Trump administration. Bartiromo also has a long history of favorable coverage of Trump and has interviewed him numerous times. Her coverage of Trump has also drawn criticism.
DePaolo also reported, “She consistently flirted with 2020 election denialism even after her coverage was central to the defamation claims made by Dominion Voting Systems – which Fox News settled for $787.5 million. On a Dec. 15, 2020 broadcast, Bartiromo flat-out stated that an ‘intel source’ told her ‘President Trump did in fact win the election.’”
President Trump praised Bartiromo’s broadcast on numerous occasions and also appeared as a guest on the Fox Business morning show. The New York Post reported in January that journalist Alex Isenstadt wrote in his book Revenge: The Inside Story of Trump’s Return to Power that Trump had considered Bartiromo as a potential running mate “but was talked out of it by aides because there wasn’t enough time to subject her to a vetting process.”
Reports push back on press secretary speculation
The surge did not last. Vanity Fair Washington correspondent Aidan McLaughlin wrote on X that Bartiromo is not headed to a job in the Trump administration, citing a source familiar with the matter. Deadline Hollywood separately reported that Bartiromo's exit was not tied to a move to another network or a role in the administration. The Independent reported the same denial from McLaughlin and said it had approached the White House for comment.
Vice President JD Vance addressed the speculation directly during Thursday's White House press briefing, the first since Karoline Leavitt's departure from the press secretary role. Asked whether Bartiromo would take the job, Vance said, "I don't know, man. No, I don't think so." He added, "I just saw the news literally as I walked out. I love Maria."
At first, Kalshi traders appeared to take the initial denials at face value, sending Bartiromo's number from 36% down to 9% within hours. Her price has since climbed back to 18%, putting her ahead of Jennings and behind only Kelly, even as Vance's comments and the reporting from Vanity Fair, Deadline and The Independent remain unchanged. The whipsawing suggests traders remain genuinely split on how much weight to give the denials versus the circumstantial timing of Bartiromo's exit, and the market could continue to move as more information emerges.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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