Big Brother 28 comes to an end tonight, and Rick Devens is the odds on favorite in Kalshi's winner market heading into the finale.
The market for the Big Brother 28 winner shows Devens' chances priced at 53%, followed by Drew Campbell at 37% and Taylor Brown at 15%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Heading into the finale
Last week, Kalshi traders priced Devens at 79% to be evicted at the Final Four, but Drew ultimately cast the sole vote to evict Dee Valladares instead.
Devens has since put himself in position to control his own fate. Taylor won Part 1 of the final Head of Household competition, while Devens defeated Drew in Part 2. Devens and Taylor will face off in Part 3 during tonight's finale, with the winner automatically advancing to the Final Two and choosing who joins them.
The live feeds have nevertheless introduced some uncertainty over what the winner might do. Big Brother Network reported that Taylor made a late pitch to Devens about taking each other to the Final Two.
“Last night we watched on the Feeds as Taylor took an 11th hour pitch to Devens that surprisingly wasn’t flat out rejected and instead really got him thinking hard over a possible upcoming decision,” Big Brother Network wrote. “Did Taylor just change who will get cut at the Final 3?”
Devens and Taylor have also been weighing how the jury could vote depending on who reaches the Final Two.
“Devens will have Angela [Murray] and Dee for sure, which only gets him halfway there,” Big Brother Network wrote. “Taylor threatened her vote would go to Drew if she gets to the end and suggested [LaTrice Vetter] would follow suit. From there Devens is likely fearful that Melody [Morris] and Barrett [Pfeiffer] would both also vote for Drew. Would Melody? Yep. Would Barrett? … Maybe.”
Drew's path to the Final Two
Drew can no longer control his path to the Final Two after losing the first two parts of the final HOH competition. Instead, either Taylor or Devens will decide whether to take him to the jury vote.
Meanwhile, Drew is facing off against two icons: Devens who competed on two seasons of Survivor and Taylor who won Big Brother 24. TVLine's Rebecca Luther wrote that Drew is vulnerable and the other two know it.
“All summer long, Survivor alumni Dee and Devens have toyed with ally Drew’s emotions,” Luther wrote. “They’ve nominated him for eviction when it hasn’t been necessary, they’ve systematically booted all of his friends on the other side of the house, and they’ve littered the BB house with lies about him talking to the Final Five, Final Four, Final Three…you get the picture.”
Paradoxically, Drew's inability to win the final HOH could improve his chances of reaching the Final Two. Both Devens and Taylor have discussed taking Drew to the end if they win Part 3, potentially leaving Drew's fate dependent on which of them wins the final competition.
Devens and Taylor will compete in the final HOH showdown tonight, with the winner choosing whether to take Drew or the other finalist to face the seven-member jury. For now, Kalshi traders give Devens the highest price to walk away with the $750,000 grand prize.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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