The BTCh is back! But will it last?

Imagine the year is 2009, and you’re a happy-go-lucky young man with a fancy cable internet connection and some excess desktop computing power to spare.

Would you choose to:

A. Use that computing power to mine a brand-new “cryptocurrency” called “Bitcoin” that is trading at about $0.10 a coin...

...or...

B. Sign up for the SETI@homeproject, which will use your computer to analyze radio signals for signs of alien life in distant galaxies?

If you chose A, congrats!

Bitcoin is now worth $111,000! Enjoy your supermodel wife and mega yacht.

Oh, wait. You chose B?

Congrats! You never found any aliens, and you now make a living writing prediction market newsletters from a halfway house in Florida City, Florida… you imbecile.

(Click here for all our Bitcoin and Crypto markets.)

This is an opinion, not financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author, who uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on the platform.

Thanks to the Trump Administration’s embrace of cryptocurrency, many traders and analysts are predicting 2025 will be a banner year for Bitcoin. And so far, that prediction seems to be accurate.

Despite falling to around $75,000 in the wake of the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, BTC is back on top, reaching an all-time high of $111,000 earlier this week.

But does this OG cryptocurrency still have room to run? Our markets seem to think so.

The current consensus forecast in our “2025 BTC High” market is $143,000.

But traders in this market also price the chances of BTC hitting $150,000 in 2025 at 40%, and put the chances of it hitting $180,000 at one in five.

Traders in our standalone “BTC Hits $150,000” market are also bullish, but slightly less optimistic.

They currently price the chances of the cryptocurrency reaching the $150,000 milestone at 35%.

Meanwhile, in our "BTC 2025 Low" market, prices suggest that the worst 2025 has to offer may already be behind us. The current consensus forecast is $74,000, which is near the lows from last April.

But obviously, this is not set in stone. Traders also price the chance of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 at 22%, and the chance of it falling below $60,000 at 17%. So while things are looking good at the moment, another big drop this year is certainly not out of the question.

While our markets currently suggest a strong performance for BTC in 2025, they are forecasting an even better performance for Ripple. Traders price its chances of being the best performing cryptocurrency of 2025 at 53%, compared to Bitcoin at 37%.

That said, the volume in this market is relatively low. Could BTC’s chances be undervalued here? Or are traders correctly anticipating that Ripple’s potential Circle acquisition will spike XRP’s price?

Don’t ask me. As implied above, I literally passed on buying BTC for ten cents. 

You need to do your own research before making any decisions, just like my cousin did during the pandemic (God rest his soul).

So best of luck!

Bitcoin Conference 2025 will be held next week in Las Vegas, and in honor of the occasion, we’re launching several markets related to the event, including:

And if you’re lucky enough to be attending the conference, keep an eye out for Kalshi’s cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour, who will be speaking at the event. The first five people to walk up to him and say “Old Terry Sent Me” will get a free handful of loose Skittles (probably).

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realOldTerryFollow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.