In October 2025, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high price above $126,000 before crumbling down in a record-breaking liquidation cascade.
Historically, the top crypto asset by market cap has performed well during the month, averaging gains of more than 18% and positive returns in 10 of 13 years, according to data from CoinGlass.
October’s historical tendencies have even earned it a nickname for crypto traders: “Uptober.”
How might Bitcoin fare this year? Traders on Kalshi are forecasting $91,000, with odds for it exceeding the marker trading at 52% as the month begins.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Bitcoin steadies around $84,000
Just more than a week ago, Bitcoin surged above $86,000 for the first time since January, sending a surge of euphoria through the crypto markets. Since that time though, BTC has slipped before consolidating around $84,000, recently changing hands at $84,300 on Thursday afternoon.
At that marker, the price has been largely flat, gaining just 0.6% in the last seven days of trading, according to data from CoinGecko.
While technical analysis remains bullish, according to Bitcoin News, momentum has stalled, with analysts telling The Street that increased treasury yields and a strengthening US dollar could diminish demand for Bitcoin in the near-term.
Uptober? How high will Bitcoin get in October?
Despite those potential headwinds, Kalshi traders are forecasting higher for Bitcoin this month. Just how much higher though will BTC go?
It fell 3.69% in October 2025, but in the two years prior BTC rose 10.7% and 28.5%, respectively. A significant jump is not out of the question, though traders make odds of a move above $87,500 the most likely outcome during the month, priced at 72% at the time of trading.
More significant gains, like a 7% price jump to more than $90,000 are priced less favorably, though still very much in the range of outcomes, with odds trading at 56%.
In October 2025, Bitcoin opened the month priced around $114,000, ultimately surging in the first few days to create a new all-time high at $126,296. But odds of it reaching $100,000 during the month, a gain of more than 18.6% from its current price, are just 9% according to Kalshi traders.
Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 before the end of the year?
While odds of BTC hitting $100,000 before the end of the month may be slim, traders think it's much more likely to happen before the end of the year.
Odds for the feat are trading around 37% on Thursday, down slightly in the last week of trading, but up more than 20% from mid-September.
Should it reach the mark, it would be the first time Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 since November 2025, nearly a full year ago.
Even still, the asset’s recent rise has put it back on the path to a positive return this year. Data from CoinGecko shows that BTC is now down just 3.8% year-to-date.
In response, Kalshi traders have dramatically improved the odds for BTC to post a positive return this year, with the outcome now trading at 46%, up 20% in the last month.
Only three other crypto assets, Chainlink (LINK), Stellar Lumens (XLM), and Ethereum (ETH) have better odds to finish the year positively.
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Image Source: André François McKenzie
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