October baseball drama is crescendoing, leading to a Wednesday slate which holds four potential elimination games.
That includes a pair of games in the National League Division Series, where the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres will hope to keep their seasons alive. Standing in their respective ways are the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers, who will seek to send them to the offseason.
In a pivotal Game 4 in Atlanta, it's the Dodgers who are favored by Kalshi traders to advance, priced at 57% to take the elimination game on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Padres and Brewers are split at 50% for Game 4 in San Diego.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is the Official Prediction Market Partner of the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, and Boston Red Sox.
Dodgers favorites to clinch NLCS berth
The reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers are hoping to make it one step closer to repeating their title, one they’ve been favored to claim since the beginning of the season.
To take the next step and clinch a berth in the National League Championship Series (NLCS), they will need to win one more game against the NL East champion Atlanta Braves.
After splitting the first two games, the Dodgers earned a 3-1 victory on Tuesday, edging out Atlanta ace Chris Sale in the process. With a 2-1 series lead, the Dodgers will turn to right-hander Tyler Glasnow as they seek to end the Braves season.
Glasnow will get the ball after another injury-riddled season in which he only pitched 74 innings, returning in August to make six starts as the regular season concluded. One of those starts came against the Braves, with Glasnow pitching five innings and giving up three earned runs while striking out seven. The righty hasn't pitched since September 24, but finished his season on a high note, striking out 11 batters over 91 pitches.
The Braves, on the other hand, will turn to trade-deadline acquisition Tyler Mahle in the hope of extending their season. Mahle last pitched in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Philadelphia Phillies, throwing seven innings of one-run ball and earning a no decision.
Mahle's start gets more difficult in this matchup, though, now needing to face one of the league's top offenses against right-handed pitchers. Los Angeles posted a 112 wRC+ against righties this season, tied for first in the MLB.
Should the Dodgers win, they’ll advance to the NLCS to square off with the series winner between the Padres and Brewers. If the Braves win, the teams will travel back to Los Angeles to play a deciding Game 5.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres Odds: Traders split on Brewers, Padres Game 4
The other NLDS matchup tonight will take place in San Diego when the Padres host the Milwaukee Brewers. After two tight affairs in Milwaukee, the Padres eked out a victory on Tuesday in San Diego, turning the ball over to right-hander Michael King to close things out as their dominant closer Mason Miller was away from the team on paternity leave.
King got it done, extending the Padres' season and with it setting up a Game 4 matchup with the Brewers on Wednesday.
“The resilience we showed today, the stick-to-itiveness, the keep-bouncing-back, all the adjectives you can use for that,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said of his team’s effort after Game 3.
The team will lean on right-hander Walker Buehler in Game 4, while the Brewers turn to a bullpen game with manager Pat Murphy likely to opt for multiple inning stints from expected pitchers like Chad Patrick and Robert Gasser. Furthermore, there’s a chance that likely NL Cy Young award winner Jacob Misiorowski could be available for a bullpen outing.
As it stands, the teams are split at 50% according to Kalshi traders. Should the Padres win, they’ll force a Game 5 back in Milwaukee on Friday. If the Brewers win, they’ll advance to the NLCS and take on the winner of the series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves.
World Series Odds Update: Dodgers still the favorite
After three games of Divisional Series play, the Dodgers maintain their status as the World Series favorites, priced at nearly 38% to hoist the trophy. Those odds have jumped around nine percentage points in the last two days of trading, after the Dodgers took a 2-1 lead in their NLDS matchup with the Braves.
Meanwhile, the Brewers have retaken the second spot, priced at 20.8% to win the World Series.
The first American League team to appear in the odds rankings is the Tampa Bay Rays, who are priced at 17.6% to win their first ever World Series crown. The Rays jumped out to a two-game lead over the New York Yankees, and now only need to win one of a potential three remaining games in the series to advance to the ALCS.
The Chicago White Sox World Series odds have jumped around eight percentage points in the last week of trading as the White Sox have yet to drop a playoff game, leading the Cleveland Guardians 2-0 heading into Wednesday’s affair. Chicago is priced at 10% to win its first title since 2005.
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