Browns vs. Jets odds: Watson's surprise 3-1 Browns are getting no respect from traders

Deshaun Watson is 3-1 and somehow the underdog as the Cleveland Browns visit the New York Jets on Sunday, Oct. 11, at 1 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium. Kalshi traders have the Jets chances priced at 56% despite a 1-3 record.

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The Jets went 3-14 in 2025 and are 1-3 in Aaron Glenn's second year as head coach, with Geno Smith at quarterback. They beat the Titans in Week 1, then lost to the Packers in overtime, to the Lions and, in Week 4, 23-12 to the Bears.

As of this writing, running back Breece Hall, linebacker Kiko Mauigoa, receiver Adonai Mitchell and offensive lineman Dylan Parham are out, while edge rushers Kingsley Enagbare and Will McDonald and receiver Tim Patrick are questionable.

The Browns are 3-1 under first-year head coach Todd Monken with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, and they share first place in the AFC North. Cleveland went 5-12 in 2025 and beat the Steelers 27-24 on Thursday night in Week 4.

As of this writing, quarterback Dillon Gabriel, defensive tackles Kalia Davis, Mason Graham and Mike Hall Jr., guard Teven Jenkins, tight end Carsen Ryan and receiver Tylan Wallace are out.

Cleveland enters as the No. 20 team in the league with a Power Score of 35.4, and Kalshi traders have the Browns at 28% to make the playoffs. New York ranks 27th with a Power Score of 16.8, and Kalshi traders have the Jets at 11% to qualify, a 7-spot gap heading into MetLife Stadium.

Kalshi traders have the Jets at 56% to win and the Browns at 44%.

As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Jets at 54% to win by more than 1.5 points.

As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the game at 46% to finish over 40.5 total points.

The sharpest storyline is Cleveland's defensive tackle room. As of this writing, Davis, Graham and Hall are all out, which leaves the Browns thin up the middle against a Jets offense that is also missing running back Breece Hall and receiver Adonai Mitchell. Watson, who is back after two Achilles surgeries and nearly two years away, has helped Cleveland to a 3-1 start.

Cleveland Browns: Kalshi traders have the Browns at 28% to reach the playoffs.

New York Jets: Kalshi traders have the Jets at 11% to reach the playoffs.

Kalshi traders have New York as a slight favorite at 56% to win, and the swing factor is whether the Jets can move the ball without Breece Hall and Mitchell against a Browns defense missing three tackles. Kalshi's prices for Browns vs. Jets will keep moving as kickoff approaches.

What are the score predictions for Browns vs. Jets? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the game at 46% to finish over 40.5 total points.

What is the spread for Browns vs. Jets? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Jets at 54% to win by more than 1.5 points.

Who is favored to win, Browns or Jets? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Jets at 56% to win and the Browns at 44%.

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