The 0-4 Buccaneers visit the 2-2 Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Tampa Bay Quarterback Baker Mayfield is out. In his place, undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his second NFL start Thursday night, on the road, on a short week, and against a Dallas team Kalshi traders have at 80% to win.
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Who is favored to win the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Week 5 game?
The Cowboys finished 7-9-1 in 2025 and missed the playoffs for a second straight season, sunk by a pass defense that ranked last in the NFL. Dallas has kept reworking that unit, most recently sending a 2027 sixth-round pick and a 2028 second-round pick to the Steelers for cornerback Joey Porter Jr., who played in last Sunday's 34-30 win at Houston. That comeback, sealed by a 12-yard Dak Prescott touchdown pass to CeeDee Lamb with 40 seconds left, moved Dallas to 2-2. As of this writing, cornerback Cobie Durant, linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and tackle Drew Shelton are out, and guard Tyler Smith is questionable.
The Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2025 and missed the playoffs after a 6-2 start. Tampa Bay kept coach Todd Bowles, lost wide receiver Mike Evans to the 49ers in free agency and enters Thursday at 0-4, with the four losses coming by a combined 20 points: 33-27 at Cincinnati, 23-19 to Cleveland, 23-16 to Minnesota and 17-14 to Green Bay. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated right thumb, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will make his second NFL start. As of this writing, safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib), cornerback Benjamin Morrison (quad) and linebacker SirVocea Dennis (ankle/foot) are also out.
Kalshi power rankings
According to Kalshi's 2026 NFL market-implied power rankings, the Cowboys enter as the No. 10 team in the league with a Power Score of 59.0, while the Buccaneers rank 28th with a Power Score of 12.2, an 18-spot gap heading into Thursday night. Kalshi traders have Dallas at 62% to qualify for the playoffs and Tampa Bay at 7%. The Cowboys have climbed six spots on the board over the past week.
What the Kalshi market says
As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Cowboys at 80% to win and the Buccaneers at 20%.
What is the point spread for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys in Week 5?
As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Cowboys winning by more than 9.5 points at 50%, one rung on a ladder of spread contracts.
What is the projected point total?
As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the game going over 48.5 total points at 52%.
What is the biggest storyline in the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Week 5 game?
The biggest storyline is the quarterback Tampa Bay sends out against what its own team site calls the NFL's second-highest scoring team. Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie out of Kansas, completed 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in his first start against Green Bay, and now gets a short week to prepare for a Dallas offense built around Prescott, Lamb and George Pickens. Mayfield is expected to miss at least two more games, so Thursday is also the first look at how much of the Buccaneers' offense holds together without him against a Cowboys defense that allowed 30 points to a winless Houston team last Sunday.
What are the Buccaneers' and Cowboys' expectations entering the 2026 season?
Buccaneers: Tampa Bay opened 2025 at 6-2 before finishing 8-9, its first missed playoffs since 2019. Bowles stayed, Zac Robinson is the offensive coordinator, and Evans, the franchise's all-time leader in receiving yards, signed with San Francisco, leaving second-year receiver Emeka Egbuka as the clearest option in the passing game. Kalshi traders have the Buccaneers at 7% to reach the playoffs as of this writing.
Cowboys: Dallas went 7-9-1 in Brian Schottenheimer's first season as head coach and missed the playoffs for a second straight year. Prescott played all 17 games in 2025 and carries an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio through four games this season, with Lamb coming off a career-high 17 catches against Houston and running back Javonte Williams coming off three touchdowns. Kalshi traders have the Cowboys at 62% to reach the playoffs as of this writing.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have the Cowboys as heavy favorites at 80% to win, with Tampa Bay missing Mayfield, Winfield, Morrison and Dennis as of this writing. The swing factor is Daniels, who has to keep the Buccaneers' offense on schedule against a Dallas defense that has allowed 30 or more points in two of its last three games. Kalshi's prices for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys will keep moving through kickoff.
What are the score predictions for the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys game? Kalshi traders have the game going over 48.5 combined points at 52%, as of this writing.
What is the spread for the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys game? Kalshi traders have the Cowboys favored to win by more than 9.5 points at 50%, as of this writing.
Who is favored to win, the Buccaneers or the Cowboys? Kalshi traders have the Cowboys favored, at 80% to the Buccaneers' 20%, as of this writing.
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