With just a few hours left before polls close in California, Attorney and former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra is a clear favorite among Kalshi traders in two key markets.
Kalshi’s market for primary advancers puts Becerra’s chances of moving on to November’s general election at 92%, followed by Republican Steve Hilton at 76%. Billionaire Tom Steyer is in a distant third, but has shown signs of life late in the day, climbing from 33% to 40% on the advancers market in the last few hours.
Assuming no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in today’s primary, the top two finishers will move on to round two.
Becerra is also the clear favorite in Kalshi’s California Governor market, where his chances are priced at 72%, followed by Steyer at 22% and Steve Hilton at 8%.
What do the polls say?
Recent polls are also favorable to Becerra. The latest Emerson College Polling shows him in the lead with 28%, followed by Steyer at 22% and Hilton at 21%.
The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies also puts Becerra in the lead at 25%, followed by Hilton at 21%, and Steyer in third place at 19%.
The Public Policy Institute of California’s poll is somewhat closer. Becerra holds a slimmer lead at 23%. Hilton finished second with those polled at 20%, followed by Steyer at 15%.
Becerra’s lead
Becerra entered the race at just 5% in the polls, and was trading at less than one-percent on Kalshi in early April. But following Eric Swalwell’s unexpected departure, the former HHS head has made a meteoric rise to the front of the pack.
The Los Angeles Times’ Dakota Smith and Nicole Nixon report that political experts and his opponents seem confounded about Becerra’s sudden rise, “with theories ranging from outright luck to a nefarious social media push.” He was also described by some as “the Goldilocks candidate in a field of competitors who weren’t just right.”
Other candidates
Several of Becerra’s other rivals also faced setbacks that limited their momentum.
The Washington Post reported some of the Democratic party’s “A-list” candidates decided not to run for the office, leaving the door open to “a long list of lower-profile candidates and a sliver of a chance for Republicans to shut them out of the general election.”
Swalwell wasn’t the only candidate who had to carry some serious baggage with their campaign. Just as California Congresswoman Katie Porter’s campaign started to get underway in 2025, footage of her berating a staffer was caught on camera in the middle of an interview. She apologized for the incident, but the damage was already done.
CalMatters.org reported that Steyer has heavily financed his campaign to an eye-popping total of $200 million. Some of the spending went to hiring social media influencers to say flattering things about him on their videos and platforms.
Endorsements from President Donald Trump have helped several candidates oust established Republicans in other states, but his endorsement of Hilton may have hurt his chances in a dark blue state like California.
Becerra's rise may reflect his ability to avoid the controversies and campaign stumbles that plagued several rivals. With polls and markets both pointing in his direction, traders now see him as the candidate to beat as voters head to the polls.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Becerra advancing in the California governor primary: 92%
Hilton advancing in the California governor primary: 76%
Steyer advancing in the California governor primary: 39%
Becerra winning the California governor’s race: 72%
Steyer winning the California governor’s race: 22%
Hilton winning the California governor’s race: 8%
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
