California governor odds: First debate boosts Steyer over Becerra

After Eric Swalwell dropped out of the California governor’s race following allegations of sexual misconduct, Tom Steyer emerged as a clear favorite on Kalshi. But the gap soon narrowed as candidate Xavier Becerra managed to pull even.

However, after last night’s first gubernatorial debate, traders once again have Tom Steyer in the driver’s seat.

Steyer is now priced at 38%, ahead of Becerra at 31%. Democratic candidate and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan is priced third at 11%.

The party control market remains the same as it did before the debate. Democrats hold a very comfortable lead at 88% while the Republican Party is priced at 12%.

Steyer, Becerra, and Mahan joined former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, Chad Bianco, and Steve Hilton for the televised debate, which covered a variety of issues from the state’s gas tax to placing restrictions on social media for children under 16.

It opened with a discussion about the state’s gas tax, which is the highest in the nation. Steyer insisted the problem isn’t with the tax, but with who has to pay it.

“The answer is not to give up the gas tax, but to have a windfall profit tax on the oil companies who have been ripping us off for decades,” Steyer said.

Mahan took the opposite approach, calling for the tax to be suspended and reformed.

“I’m the only candidate on this stage who has called for suspending the gas tax and reforming it, so it no longer is the most regressive tax in California that’s putting an undue burden on working families like I grew up in,” Mahan said.

The cost of housing has also risen for Californians. The state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office shows that the cost of a mid-tier home in California is “more than twice as expensive as the typical mid-tier U.S. home.”

Mahan cited his work as mayor of San Jose as a blueprint for how to make housing more affordable across the state.

“We sped up permitting,” Mahan said. “We’ve used new technology to make it easier to apply, and most importantly, we reduced one-time fees that looked good on paper but were blocking the very thing we need – housing and opportunity for people.”

Bianco blamed “California state government” for the housing price crisis. 

“It is not that we can’t afford a house,” Bianco said. “It’s that builders can’t afford to build a house because of the over-excessive regulations on our building industry.”

The candidates largely agreed that social media usage among children needed to be moderated, but offered different solutions on how to rein in that usage.

Porter cited her children as examples of those who moderate their usage. She shifted the blame for the crisis to the social media companies who make their products so addictive and said she would hold them accountable rather than supporting a ban.

“I do think we need to hold companies accountable when their products produce harm,” Porter said. “If they are producing addiction, if they are failing to moderate inappropriate conduct, then we should absolutely hold them accountable.”

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