The final week of February has not been kind to Dr. Casey Means, at least as far as Kalshi traders are concerned.
The odds of Means being confirmed as U.S. surgeon general have been fluctuating wildly since the nominee spoke before a Senate committee on Wednesday, and are currently less than 50%.
Means started the day priced at 52¢ to receive confirmation. However, she quickly butted heads with members of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee.
Kalshi’s traders soon grew bearish on Means, and her odds fell to as low as one cent in the late afternoon. However, it should be noted that this market currently has relatively low volume ($20,903 as of Tuesday afternoon), and Means’ price has rebounded to 44%.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
Vaccine clashes
The contentious testimony reached its pinnacle when the topic of medical vaccines was presented. She drew bipartisan criticism, with senators Bill Cassidy (R–LA), Tim Kaine (D–VA), and Bernie Sanders (I–VT) applying pressure.
Means offered support for Health Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr.’s MAHA rhetoric, but after different lines of questioning, she also admitted to the efficacy of common vaccines.
A popular wellness influencer on social media, Means boasts over 840,000 Instagram followers. Regardless, her polished digital content may not earn her much sway with the U.S. Senate.
Other Senate confirmations
In other Senate confirmation news, Billy Long is listed for 65¢ to become the United States Ambassador to Iceland. Former New Mexico congressman Stevan Pearce is trading at the exact same price to be confirmed to helm the Bureau of Land Management.
Further down, Kalshi’s traders are giving Scott Bessent a 24% chance to be confirmed as Governor of the International Monetary Fund. From there, Sean Plankey shows an 18% likelihood to assume the office of CISA director.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Who will be confirmed by the U.S. Senate by May 2026?
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.