Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds: Tampa Bay heavily favored as Mahomes sits again

The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Raymond James Stadium to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Saturday, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The market prices Kansas City at 33% and Tampa Bay at 68%, as of this writing.

Kansas City is still building its offense back around Justin Fields while Patrick Mahomes continues his recovery from a torn ACL and LCL, and Andy Reid confirmed Thursday that Mahomes will sit out for a second straight week. Tampa Bay, by contrast, is expected to get its clearest look yet at its own starting quarterback.

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Traders have priced the Buccaneers as a heavy favorite at 68% to Kansas City's 33%, as of this writing. The gap reflects a Chiefs offense still running through backups without Mahomes, against a Buccaneers team about to unveil its starting quarterback for the first time this preseason.

According to Kalshi's 2026 NFL market-implied power rankings, Tampa Bay enters as the No. 21 team in the league while Kansas City ranks 6th, though the rankings reflect season-long championship odds rather than Saturday's backup-heavy matchup.

Kansas City's injury list includes offensive tackle Josh Simmons (back) and guard Trey Smith (hip), both held out of this trip after missing practice time in camp.

Tampa Bay's report centers on its receiver room: Emeka Egbuka (toe) and Jalen McMillan (knee) have both been labeled day-to-day after sitting out practice this week.

Meanwhile, Justin Fields will start for Kansas City and play into the second quarter, with rookie Garrett Nussmeier and Chris Oladokun following, while Mahomes stays on track for a Week 1 regular-season return.

For Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield is expected to make his preseason debut after sitting out the opener, giving fans their first live look at the Buccaneers' new offense under coordinator Zac Robinson.

Both teams used joint practices this week to get more out of their evaluation process than a preseason box score typically offers. Mayfield got extensive competitive reps against Kansas City's defense during those sessions, a preview of what Saturday's limited action figures to show fans firsthand.

Tampa Bay is priced at 49% to win by more than 5.5 points, as of this writing.

The total is priced at 53% to go over 36.5 points, as of this writing.

Kansas City is priced at 35% to win the AFC West, as of this writing, narrowly ahead of Denver at 33% and the Chargers at 31%.

Tampa Bay leads the NFC South at 32%, as of this writing, ahead of Carolina at 23% and New Orleans at 27%.

Kalshi markets now predict:

When is Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay? Saturday, August 22, 2026, at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Where is the game? Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
How can I watch? Local broadcast.
What is Kalshi traders' current number? Kansas City is priced at 33% and Tampa Bay at 68%, as of this writing.

Tampa Bay is a heavy favorite at home, with Kalshi traders pricing the Buccaneers at 68% as Patrick Mahomes sits out for a second straight week and Baker Mayfield prepares for his preseason debut.

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