The Chiefs visit the Raiders on Sunday, Oct. 4, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Both teams enter at 3-0, marking the first time these two have met with both at 3-0 or better, with Kansas City coming off a dominant win in Miami and Las Vegas riding its best start since 2021. Kalshi traders have the Chiefs priced at 68% to win.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.
Who is favored to win the Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 4 game?
Kansas City is 3-0 after a 24-10 win at Miami in Week 3, in which Mahomes completed 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns, and Walker leads the league with 360 rushing yards. As of this writing, left tackle Josh Simmons (back) is out.
Las Vegas is 3-0 for the first time since 2021 after beating Miami, the Chargers and New Orleans, and tight end Brock Bowers returned in Week 3 with 10 catches for 116 yards. As of this writing, guard Jackson Powers-Johnson (groin) is out and quarterback Aidan O'Connell (personal) is questionable.
Kalshi power rankings
The Chiefs enter as the No. 2 team in the league with a Power Score of 86.3 and an 85% playoff qualification price, while the Raiders rank 14th with a Power Score of 50.1 and a 39% playoff price, a 12-spot gap heading into Las Vegas. See the full 2026 NFL market-implied power rankings.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have the Chiefs at 68% to win and the Raiders at 33%. Kansas City is favored on the road, in line with its edge in the Kalshi power rankings.
What is the point spread for Chiefs vs. Raiders in Week 4?
Kalshi traders have the Chiefs winning by more than 4.5 points at 51% as of this writing.
What is the projected point total?
Kalshi traders have the over on 47.5 total points at 50% as of this writing.
What is the biggest storyline in the Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 4 game?
Only five teams in the league remain unbeaten, and two of them meet here in a matchup that has never happened before — the Raiders and Chiefs have never faced off when both were 3-0 or better in the regular season. Mahomes is 13-2 against Las Vegas in his career. The teams split their two meetings last season, including a 31-0 Kansas City win, and the Raiders allowed New Orleans to convert nine of 15 third downs last week.
What are the Chiefs' and Raiders' expectations for the 2026 season?
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are trying to take back the AFC West after Denver ended their nine-year run as division champions last season. Kalshi traders have Kansas City at 85% to make the playoffs, 14% to win the AFC and 8% to win the championship.
Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders are off to their best start in five years after a three-win season. Kalshi traders have Las Vegas at 39% to make the playoffs despite the 3-0 record.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have the Chiefs at 68% to win, favoring the higher-ranked team in a first-ever matchup of unbeaten Raiders and Chiefs teams. Whether Las Vegas can keep its perfect record intact against Mahomes and the league's leading rusher is the swing factor. Kalshi's prices for Chiefs vs. Raiders will keep moving as kickoff approaches.
What are the score predictions for Chiefs vs. Raiders? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the over on 47.5 total points at 50%.
What is the spread for Chiefs vs. Raiders? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Chiefs winning by more than 4.5 points at 51%.
Who is favored to win, Chiefs or Raiders? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Chiefs at 68% to win.
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