Chris Cillizza's midterm metrics: Senate race sticker shock

Here's an interesting way to look at the Senate playing field with just 20 days left before the election: What races are overpriced, underpriced and properly priced by Kalshi traders?

I did the work for you! Scroll down to see it.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.}

But before we get to my over/under/proper pricing, let’s make sure we are all operating from the same data.

I take my list of potentially competitive Senate races from The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, a nonpartisan handicapping site. (Fun sidenote: My first real job was working at the Cook Report!). At the moment, Cook rates 13 races as competitive. (For me, that means any race not currently considered “safe” for either party.)

Here are those races by party – and the current Cook ratings:

Democratic-held seats (4): Michigan (Toss Up), New Hampshire (Lean Democrat), Georgia (Likely Democrat), Minnesota (Likely Democrat)

Republican-held seats (9): North Carolina (Likely Democrat), Alaska (Toss Up), Iowa (Toss Up), Kansas (Toss Up), Maine (Toss Up), Ohio (Toss Up), Texas (Toss Up), Nebraska (Likely Republican), South Carolina (Likely Republican)

Could the Senate playing field be bigger than that? Sure. If it’s a Democratic tsunami, Mississippi, South Dakota and even Florida could be in the mix. 

Could the landscape be narrower? Also, yes! I could see the races in South Carolina and Nebraska not be that close in the end.

But, we need some sort of baseline. So let’s make it those 13 seats for now. 

I went through each of the Kalshi markets on that baker's dozen – and slotted them in as to whether I thought Democratic chances of winning were over, under or properly priced.

My takes are below. Agree? Disagree? Email me at [email protected]! 

And for all of this year’s election markets, visit Kalshi’s 2026 Midterm Hub.

Mary Peltola is the frontrunner. But does she have a 74% chance of winning in a state that Trump won by 13 points in 2024 and where GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan really hasn't done anything wrong?  I don't think so. Plus, the four-person general election ballot and ranked-choice voting are variables that, for me, add uncertainty to the outcome.

Iowa is the linchpin between Democrats at 50 or 51 seats and Democrats at 53-54 seats. If state Rep. Josh Turek wins, I think the latter range is very likely. Here's the thing: Rep. Ashley Hinson is the best Senate candidate Republicans have in the country. If she loses, it's a sign that the national environment is a total disaster for the GOP. I am not there yet.

There's no question that Abdul El-Sayed has steadied his campaign after a VERY rough first month as the Democratic nominee. But it's also a near-certainty he will underperform Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson at the top of the ticket.  I would probably price AES in the 55%-60% range.

Let me be clear: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is the favorite to beat former Sen. John E. Sununu. But I think Sununu's famous last name – his dad and brother were popular governors in the state – coupled with New Hampshire voters treasuring their independence and unpredictability gives me some pause about a 90% chance of a Democratic victory.

This is the most overpriced race on the board in terms of Democrats' chances of winning. James Talarico is a very good candidate. Ken Paxton is a very bad one. But Republicans are spending north of $200 million to remind voters in the state that they are, in fact, Republicans. Talarico could win – the first Democrat to win statewide since 1994 – but I do not think there is a 60%+ chance of it happening.

I talked to a well-connected GOP consultant paying close attention to Kansas who told me flatly that if the election were today Sen. Roger Marshall would lose. Now, the election isn't today. And Republicans have woken up to the problem in the Sunflower State. The main Senate GOP super PAC is spending $14 million on TV in the final weeks and Trump is headed to the state for a campaign visit. Still, Adam Hamilton is way underpriced at 37%.

Democratic nervousness about Troy Jackson's chances of beating Sen. Susan Collins surged in the last week. I think it's way overblown. Yes, Collins has repeatedly shown an ability to overperform her party in the state, but no, she has never run in this bad a national midterm environment for Republicans.

What does it tell you that Trump has campaigned for appointed Sen. Jon Husted twice in the past 10 days? What it tells me is that Husted knows he has a base motivation problem. That's not a good problem to have this close to an election. My sense here is that the cake is mostly baked.  Voters know former Sen. Sherrod Brown and, generally speaking, like him. They don't know Husted.

Trump won the Palmetto State by 18 points in 2024. The problems Republican candidates are experiencing in the Farm Belt are less of an issue in South Carolina. And yet, I still think a 15% probability is too low for Democrat Annie Andrews.  Appointed Sen. Darline Graham is a bad candidate. She is a bad fundraiser. And the fact that national Republicans felt the need to spend $5 million on ads to save/boost her should worry every GOPer who is banking on a win here.

Sen. Jon Ossoff wins unless something goes drastically wrong for him in the last 20 days. Rep. Mike Collins may be the worst Republican candidate in the country. 

Peggy Flanagan (and Democrats nationally) are very lucky that she is running in a great national political environment for her side. Minnesota is moving – slowly but surely – towards Republicans over time and Michele Tafoya is a quality candidate. But Flanagan almost certainly wins in this environment.

Dan Osborn is a good candidate. And he's running in a far better national environment than he did when he lost to Sen. Deb Fischer by 7 points in 2024. (Osborn is running in this race, as he did in that one, as an Independent. There is no Democratic nominee.) But Sen. Pete Ricketts is paying a lot more attention than Fischer did. And Ricketts is a billionaire who can stroke a check to prop up the campaign anytime he needs to. Given all that, a one in four shot for Osborn seems about right to me.

Roy Cooper was never seriously challenged by GOP candidate Michael Whatley. Who could have imagined a guy who was a party apparatchik and had never run for elected office in his own right before might turn out to be less-than-advertised???

Follow Chris Cillizza on YouTube and on Substack
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}