Coco Gauff's pursuit of a second US Open title will continue Thursday night, but a familiar foe stands in her way.
When she takes the court in Arthur Ashe Stadium, she’ll meet Spain’s Paula Badosa, an oft-injured but threatening opponent who has bested Gauff in their last two matches, including once this year on the grass in Berlin.
Kalshi traders make the American a significant favorite, with odds of a Gauff victory at 88% as she continues her quest for another US Open crown.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Women’s Tennis Association. Kalshi is a proud partner of the US Open.
Gauff trails in the head-to-head
Despite being priced as a significant favorite on Thursday, Gauff trails Badosa in their career head-to-head record. The Spaniard owns a 5-3 record lifetime against Gauff, most recently defeating her at the Berlin Open in the lead up to Wimbledon, overcoming a set deficit to win in three sets.
She also defeated Gauff in their lone meeting in 2025, earning a victory in straight-sets in the quarterfinal round at the Australian Open.
The last time Gauff, the overwhelming favorite in Thursday’s match, scored a win over Badosa was in October 2024, when she earned a victory in three sets in the semifinals in Beijing.
But their recent career trajectories tell different stories. Though Gauff has had her own periods of underperformance, she's generally been near the top of the game, scoring a Grand Slam victory in 2025 at Roland Garros and most recently claiming the title in Cincinnati.
Badosa on the other hand has been fighting chronic injuries, needing to overcome a stress fracture in her back, a torn labrum, and a hip issue in the last few years.
She came into the tournament without any hard court warm-up, but still found her way through her first round matchup with Daria Kasatkina, winning in straight-sets.
Gauff similarly won in straight-sets, defeating Turkey’s Zeynep Sonmez.
Can Gauff win the US Open?
Should Gauff find her way through her second round tilt with Badosa, she'll likely be a significant favorite in her next match as well, where she’d compete against the winner of the match between Cristina Bucsa and Himeno Sakatsume.
Kalshi traders though foresee her making a much deeper run than the third round. As of Thursday morning, Gauff is the second favorite to lift the trophy at the end of the tournament, priced at 19%.
At those odds, she trails only Aryna Sabalenka, world No. 1 and the two-time defending champion at the US Open.
Sabalenka, who is priced at 23% at the time of writing, has breezed through her first two rounds and given the relative ease of her draw, is priced at 61% to qualify for the semifinals, the highest mark in the field. The Belarusian hasn’t lost in New York in more than two years, with her last defeat coming in 2023 when she fell to Gauff in the finals.
That rematch could be coming.
Since the pair are on opposite sides of the draw, the only time they could meet in New York would be in the finals.
As it stands, Kalshi traders make them the most likely to qualify.
Other contenders are still lurking
Beyond Gauff and Sabalenka, Poland’s Iga Swiatek and American Jessica Pegula hold the next best odds to lift the trophy, priced at 16% and 10%, respectively.
Swiatek will take to the court on Thursday as well, priced as a sizable favorite (98%) to win over Argentina’s Nadia Podoroska. Unlike Sabalenka, a path to the finals for Swiatek would involve a pair of significant tests where she may need to defeat live-ranked world No. 1 Elena Rybakina and Gauff before a final clash with Sabalenka.
Pegula’s path is a bit less daunting, though she may need to find her way through Sabalenka to play for the trophy. The American has dazzled in straight-set victories in her first two matches and will square off against Canadian Leylah Fernandez, a former US Open finalist, in her third round match. In that matchup, Kalshi traders make Pegula an 84% favorite.
While the men’s draw has seen its fair share of upsets, most of the women’s top contenders still remain, meaning Naomi Osaka (7%), Mirra Andreeva (6%), and Elena Rybakina (5%) are all existing threats to the tournament favorites.
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Image Source: Ben Solomon, USTA
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