That long summer wait is over. Football games that count are here.
As always, that begins with the unique, cult-acclaimed “Week 0” in college football. Most FBS teams will get their schedules underway next week on Labor Day weekend, but some have an early tune-up, or real test, right in front of them.
What can we expect from our first taste of the gridiron that matters? Let’s dive in.
For informational purposes only. This is opinion, not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.
North Carolina vs. TCU
Bill Belichick’s second year at North Carolina is a make-or-break campaign after a dismal 4-8 year in 2025. He’s certainly added a key piece in hopes of developing both the stability and explosiveness of his offense, hiring former Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino to call plays. Former Maryland quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., a developing dual threat, will start under center.
TCU is also in as much flux as we’ve seen in the Sonny Dykes era, losing longtime quarterback Josh Hoover to Indiana. Jaden Craig, a transfer from Harvard, will take his place. The team’s leading receiver, Eric McAlister, is also now in an NFL training camp.
As uncompetitive as UNC was a year ago in this same matchup, Craig completed just 61.5% of his throws last season in the Ivy League. Veteran running back Jeremy Payne can be explosive, but UNC was excellent against the run last year, allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt (YPA; 26th in FBS). That’s a Belichick staple.
This matchup in Dublin, with light rain in the forecast, could favor Edwards Jr.’s improvisation ability with his feet plus UNC’s returning duo of rushers, Demon June and Benjamin Hall. The Tar Heels’ schedule this year is brutal, but they’ve got a winnable first contest.
Swami's crystal ball says: North Carolina 24, TCU 23
Market odds: North Carolina 74%, TCU 26%
San Jose State vs. (#14) USC
The only ranked team in action this week is the USC Trojans, who have made this Week 0 home tune-up a regular occurrence in the Lincoln Riley era.
Expectations for Riley and the team haven’t been higher since he took the job. After a 9-4 record a year ago (and playing Oregon to a last-minute score), USC proved it could at least hang with the big boys. It’ll now be on Jayden Maiava, who led FBS in QBR (91.2) a year ago, to prove he’s got a Heisman-level campaign in him after receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane departed for the NFL.
San Jose State is trying to shake off a rough 3-9 campaign last year, which was its first losing season since 2021. Ken Niumatalolo is hoping Luke Weaver, a transfer from Hawaii who played in five contests a year ago, is his new answer at quarterback. The Spartans ranked 103rd in yards per play (5.9 YPP) on defense, too. That must improve if they want to be back in a bowl game.
At 6’4” with a strong arm and plus movement skills, Maiava might end up being a top-five pick in the draft with a season that looks like last year’s. At least in this opener, expect USC to overwhelm its interstate foe by halftime.
Swami's crystal ball says: USC 49, San Jose State 10
Market odds: USC 98%, San Jose St. 2%
NC State at Virginia
A conference battle on campus just isn’t something you see in Week 0 all too often, but it makes for a great viewing experience on an August afternoon.
The Virginia Cavaliers will host the N.C. State Wolfpack in Charlottesville after a breakout season for Tony Elliott’s team. They finished 11-3 and won the Gator Bowl to cap the first winning season of Elliott’s tenure. Virginia has clearly been busy in the transfer portal to fill Chandler Morris’ void at quarterback, recruiting former Missouri QB Beau Pribula and former Pitt QB Eli Holstein to the squad. Pribula won the job in camp.
Dave Doeren and the Wolfpack hope consistency will be key, turning the offense over to C.J. Bailey for a third straight game. Bailey improved to complete 68.8% of his passes with a 25-to-9 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions a year ago. It was the defense (6.1 YPP allowed) that let them down a year ago.
Pribula’s offense averaged 30.2 points per game last year, and Bailey and the Wolfpack eclipsed 30 points in 8 of his 13 starts. This is as close as the football calendar gets to the 4th of July, so fireworks up and down the field might be appropriate.
Swami's crystal ball says: Virginia 31, N.C. State 27
Market odds: Virginia 63%, North Carolina St. 37%
Memphis at UNLV
I never would have guessed this, but it’s been 13 years since the Memphis Tigers had a losing season. They might be college football’s quietest powerhouse.
We’ll see how a new coach, Charlie Huff, fares after Ryan Silverfield departed for the Arkansas job. Huff was the head man at Southern Miss last year, where the Golden Eagles finished 7-6 and had a top-50 defense on a YPP basis (5.3). They could be more grit than flash under Huff, who started as an offensive line coach.
Meanwhile, Dan Mullen’s makeover of the UNLV Rebels enters its second year. UNLV went 10-4 and lost the Frisco Bowl last season, but Mullen’s run-first approach made headway — especially when an undermanned defense was 117th in the country in YPP themselves.
The quarterback tandem in Nevada leaves no doubt as to their approach. Former Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold and former Michigan QB Alex Orji are both run-first options and “co-starters” in this Week 0 tune-up. They might ride the hot hand as a runner, but the entire rushing attack might find it a bit more challenging than usual to move the ball. Memphis and Southern Miss, Huff’s old school, were both top-55 schools in rushing YPA allowed last season.
Both of these programs were outside the top 80 in seconds per play (tempo) in 2025, as well.
Swami's crystal ball says: UNLV 27, Memphis 19
Market odds: UNLV 63%, Memphis 37%
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