Week 4’s wave of ranked battles did not disappoint.
The SEC got flipped on its head as #8 Florida got a season-defining win over #9 Ole Miss in Jon Sumrall's first season as the Gators' head coach. #15 Oregon stayed in the College Football Playoff mix without its star quarterback against #12 USC. It was a jam-packed Saturday.
Week 5 is not quite the same, but we are not short on marquee contests. I am not sure anyone thought #7 Alabama and #16 Mississippi State would have major SEC implications in July, but that is why we love college football.
Plus, #5 Ohio State travels to a snakepit against #14 Iowa. Florida and #12 Texas Tech will look to avoid dangerous road upsets.
It is a jam-packed slate, and Kalshi's college football traders are taking stands. Here is how I see the games unfolding.
For informational purposes only. This is opinion, not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA. See full disclaimer below.
#7 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State
Last week, we saw Kamario Taylor mania completely flip Mississippi State to a favorite against Missouri. No such movement has occurred since last Saturday against Alabama, a top-10 team in the country.
Taylor, who sits ninth in QBR (87.0) across college football, is just half the story, though. The Bulldogs are a top-35 school in passing and rushing yards per attempt (YPA) allowed despite facing a Power 4 school in three of their four games.
Alabama has its own impressive youngster. Keelon Russell (89.0 QBR) has not had quite as much on his plate, per the Tide's 56.4% rush play percentage, but he has delivered when called upon to produce 11 scrimmage TDs to 2 interceptions as a first-year starter under Kalen DeBoer.
The one key difference between these schools? Alabama is giving up 7.8 YPA (87th in FBS) through the air, facing Kenny Minchey, Ashton Daniels, and LaNorris Sellers in three consecutive weeks. Here comes one of the leaders in Heisman Trophy odds.
I do not think Taylor's heater ends in what could be a fun one in Starkville. Kalshi traders price Alabama as a 66% favorite, with Mississippi State at 34%.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Mississippi State 31, Alabama 30
#5 Ohio State at #14 Iowa
Ohio State and the San Francisco 49ers' competition of "who can play more bad teams at home in a row?" ends this weekend; San Fran gets the nod with a home date against the Broncos, Bo Nix, and his lucky horseshoe.
Regardless, Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City might be one of the most underrated and difficult places to play in all of college football. Since the start of 2024, the Hawkeyes have surrendered just 13.0 points per game and are 12-3.
Jeremiah Smith, Julian Sayin, and a star-studded attack will try to buck the trend as Smith comes off a performance of 12 catches for 214 yards and 4 touchdowns.
You would think Iowa is sort of built to stop the unstoppable force. The Hawkeyes are 79th in seconds per play (27.0) to help bog the pace down, but Kirk Ferentz's guys are allowing 7.1 passing YPA (62nd in FBS) thus far, and they have only faced Bryce Underwood and Iowa State's Jaylen Raynor in Power 4 games.
Of course, there is also the whole issue that they generally cannot score. Iowa's 20-point "explosion" against Michigan featured both a kickoff return for a touchdown and a Hail Mary. That is probably the most certain aspect of the match against a talented Buckeyes defense. Kalshi traders price Ohio State as an 85% favorite, with Iowa at 16%.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Ohio State 27, Iowa 13
#8 Florida at #25 Missouri
Fresh off their biggest win since Tim Tebow was a Gator, Florida hits the road against a #25 Missouri team that just lost a shootout to Taylor and Mississippi State.
It is sort of cruel that this should have been a matchup of the SEC's top two running backs. Of course, Florida's Jaden Baugh is second in the country in rushing yards (600), and Missouri's Ahmad Hardy is still recovering from injuries sustained in an unfortunate preseason shooting. Jamal Roberts (365 rushing yards; 18th in FBS) has done an admirable job in his stead.
Not much was on Aaron Philo's shoulders last week for the Gators, but I am not certain a 16-for-23 effort with 195 yards against a struggling Pete Golding defense was the output I needed to believe he is ready to go on the road and make plays. In fact, it was Mizzou's Austin Simmons (73.0 QBR) who went blow-for-blow with Taylor last week until the final drive.
Urgency is a funny thing in football. Eli Drinkwitz knows his talented Missouri team is all but toast with a second consecutive loss, and Florida is riding high in a position not many expected them to have in July. Plus, Missouri has bottled opponents to just 2.7 yards per carry thus far, implying hope of just limiting Baugh to a "fine" day. Kalshi traders price Florida as a 67% favorite, with Missouri at 34%.
Watch out for the Tigers at home.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Missouri 26, Florida 23
#4 Miami (FL) at Clemson
I had to pull this game in because it is still just so remarkable to see, considering where Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers were in the college football landscape for a decade.
For the first time in his career, Kalshi traders have positioned Swinney as a double-digit underdog at home. This #4 Miami (FL) team might be many's favorite to lift the trophy right now.
Quarterback Darian Mensah (93.9 QBR) might be called first in April if he continues a torrid pace of 14 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. His own Heisman case might be trumped by wide receiver Malachi Toney, who is averaging an impossible, video-game-like 16.6 yards per reception despite a team-best 34 grabs.
Oh, yeah. Miami's defense? They are 14th in yards per play allowed (4.3 YPP), too.
Clemson is 3-1, and they have handled two ACC foes so far, but true freshman Tait Reynolds (28.9 QBR) has taken 10 sacks with 1 total touchdown to 2 interceptions. They have needed their ground game to get by inferior foes, but they will likely trail the Hurricanes' ferocious pass rush at some point. This one could get ugly. Kalshi traders price Miami (FL) as an 87% favorite, with Clemson at 14%.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Miami (FL) 42, Clemson 10
#12 Texas Tech at Colorado
Hey, it’s my article, so on an unspectacular week, I can choose my “Game of the Week”. I went to school at the University of Colorado Boulder, and I currently live in Lubbock, minutes from Texas Tech’s campus.
I had a blast at these teams’ last meeting in 2024, which feels like a decade ago as a Colorado alum. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter led the Buffs to a 41-27 win.
Colorado has fallen on some pretty hard times since those two left, though. The Buffaloes are 2-2 this year with a full-blown quarterback controversy after last week's 23-13 loss to Baylor in Waco. I am glad I did not make the drive.
Texas Tech is still the Big 12 favorite, but the Red Raiders are definitely feeling the effects of the school's best draft class ever. They are 71st in YPP allowed (5.5) and 40th in YPP (6.1) on offense despite multiple tune-ups. Quarterback Will Hammond (61.3 QBR) has not been consistently sharp.
The Buffaloes’ defense (55th in YPP allowed) is playing well despite being 81st in time of possession due to the offensive issues.
On national TV, beware of a raucous Colorado homecoming crowd for the team's first Power 4 game at Folsom Field this year. They usually turn out for this nightcap, and if that can disrupt the rhythm of what has been a bumpy Tech offense, the Buffaloes could unexpectedly hang around even without getting much from their passing game. Kalshi traders price Texas Tech as an 82% favorite, with Colorado at 19%.
This is your full disclaimer that this pick might be a little tainted, though.
Swami's Crystal Ball Says: Texas Tech 26, Colorado 19
Follow Austin Swaim on X: @ASwaim3
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Bobak Ha'Eri
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA.
