The Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders meet Sunday, Oct. 4, at 9:30 a.m. ET at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, with Washington as the designated home team. Kalshi traders have the Colts at 67% to win, with Marcus Mariota starting again for Washington in place of the injured Jayden Daniels.
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Who is favored to win the Colts vs. Commanders Week 4 game?
Indianapolis enters 2026 at 1-2 after a tough opening stretch. The Colts fell to Baltimore 41-23 in Week 1 and dropped a 33-30 road decision to Kansas City in Week 2 before beating Houston 19-17 in Week 3 for their first win. Daniel Jones is back under center with 376 passing yards through three games, and the Colts have not ruled anyone out, with wide receivers Keenan Allen (groin) and Ashton Dulin (ankle) listed as questionable.
Washington is also 1-2 entering Week 4. The Commanders lost to Philadelphia 24-22 on the road in Week 1 and were blown out in Dallas 37-20 in Week 2, before Mariota led them to a 33-31 win over the defending champion Seattle Seahawks in Week 3 for their first win. As of this writing, Daniels (left elbow) is out after dislocating it in Week 2, along with running back Rachaad White (shoulder), guard Sam Cosmi (concussion/throat) and safety Nick Cross (illness). Wide receiver Terry McLaurin (hamstring) is questionable after being added to the report Friday, while linebacker Frankie Luvu and tight end Chig Okonkwo are set to return.
Kalshi power rankings
The Colts enter as the No. 19 team in the league with a Power Score of 32.4 and a 37% playoff qualification price, while the Commanders rank 26th with a Power Score of 23.3 and a 20% playoff price, a seven-spot gap heading into London. See the full 2026 NFL market-implied power rankings.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have the Colts at 67% to win and the Commanders at 35%. Indianapolis brings the healthier roster across the Atlantic, while Washington is leaning on its backup quarterback for a second straight week.
What is the point spread for Colts vs. Commanders in Week 4?
Kalshi traders have the Colts winning by more than 3.5 points at 54% as of this writing.
What is the projected point total?
Kalshi traders have the over on 48.5 total points at 44% as of this writing.
What is the biggest storyline in the Colts vs. Commanders Week 4 game?
Mariota gets a second straight start against a Colts defense that ranks 29th in the league in total yards allowed at 417.3 per game. He was named FedEx Air and Ground Player of the Week after the Seattle win, and Daniels practiced on a limited basis all week before Quinn ruled him out Friday. The other side of it is a Washington pass defense ranked 30th facing Jones, with Jonathan Taylor already at four rushing touchdowns on the season.
What are the Colts' and Commanders' expectations for the 2026 season?
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts missed the playoffs for a fifth straight year in 2025 and chose continuity by bringing Jones back after his best NFL season. Kalshi traders have Indianapolis at 37% to make the playoffs.
Washington Commanders: Washington is trying to climb out of a 5-12 season with a retooled staff. A win in London would get the Commanders to 2-2 with Daniels set to be reevaluated next week, and Kalshi traders have them at 20% to make the playoffs.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have the Colts at 67% to win in London, with the quarterback matchup tilted toward Indianapolis while Daniels sits. Whether Mariota can repeat his Seattle performance against a struggling Colts defense is the swing factor. Kalshi's prices for Colts vs. Commanders will keep moving as kickoff approaches.
What are the score predictions for Colts vs. Commanders? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the over on 48.5 total points at 44%.
What is the spread for Colts vs. Commanders? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Colts winning by more than 3.5 points at 54%.
Who is favored to win, Colts or Commanders? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Colts at 67% to win.
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