Despite a House-passed bill restricting stock purchases by members of Congress stalling in the Senate, Kalshi's market on a congressional stock trading ban rose in price.
Traders now price a congressional stock trading ban before Jan. 21, 2029, at 43%, while the price for a ban taking effect before 2027 has fallen to 2.2%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Senate blocks House-passed bill
Senate Democrats blocked a bill that would’ve restricted insider trading on Capitol Hill because lawmakers said it didn’t go far enough and included unrelated voter ID rules.
The Guardian reported that the Stop Insider Trading Act failed 53-47, falling short of the 60 votes needed to advance in the Senate. The House passed the measure back in July.
Every Democrat and independent in the Senate voted against the measure just five weeks before the November midterms.
“The bill would bar members of Congress, their spouses and their dependent children from buying individual stocks,” The Guardian reported. “Democrats said that falls short of a ban because lawmakers could keep everything they already own, reinvest dividends into more shares and let a spouse or child trade on their behalf.
The Guardian also reported that Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer called the bill “a permission slip for corruption” and said Republicans had designed it to fail. He noted that a Senate committee advanced a bipartisan ban in 2025 and accused Republicans of ignoring it. His deputy, Dick Durbin, dismissed the “meaningless” bill as “an inadequate congressional stock trading ban” and “Republican messaging.”
Senate Democrats also wanted “the rules extended to the president and other White House officials.”
Republicans argued that Democrats were blocking a meaningful restriction on congressional stock trading ahead of the midterms.
The legislation also included a provision requiring voters to present photo identification when casting a ballot. Democrats argued the requirement would make it more difficult for some eligible voters to cast ballots.
Midterm momentum
The New York Times described the bill as one of Republicans' final legislative pushes before senators left Washington to campaign ahead of the midterms.
“They are facing a bleak political landscape with just weeks to go before the balloting, aimed at showing they were responsive to voters’ concerns,” The Times reported.
The takeaway
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