The Dallas Cowboys visit the Houston Texans on Sunday, Oct. 4, at 1 p.m. ET at Reliant Stadium. Kalshi traders have the Texans at 59% to win, even though Houston is 0-3 and Dallas is coming off a last-second loss in Brazil.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.
When and where do the Cowboys play the Texans in Week 4 of the 2026 season?
The Cowboys and Texans kick off Sunday, Oct. 4, at 1 p.m. ET at Reliant Stadium in Houston.
Who is favored to win the Cowboys vs. Texans Week 4 game?
The Cowboys are 1-2 after a 34-31 loss to Baltimore in Rio de Janeiro, decided by a 56-yard field goal as time expired. Dak Prescott leads an offense built around CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, but the defense is giving up 179.7 rushing yards per game. As of this writing, linebacker DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) and cornerback Cobie Durant (hamstring) are out.
DeMeco Ryans' team is 0-3 again after losses to Buffalo, Cincinnati and Indianapolis, and the offense ranks 24th at 18 points per game with just 84.7 rushing yards per game. C.J. Stroud has 794 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions but has been sacked 10 times, while Will Anderson Jr. has four sacks. As of this writing, linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (groin) and safety M.J. Stewart (knee) are out, with guard Ed Ingram (groin) and defensive ends Jadeveon Clowney (knee) and Logan Hall (knee) among those questionable.
Kalshi power rankings
The Cowboys enter as the No. 16 team in the league with a Power Score of 44.3 and a 46% playoff qualification price, while the Texans rank 22nd with a Power Score of 29.5 and a 37% playoff price, a six-spot gap that runs opposite to the game price. See the full 2026 NFL market-implied power rankings.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have the Texans at 59% to win and the Cowboys at 41%. Houston is favored at home despite the winless start and a lower power rankings position than Dallas.
What is the point spread for Cowboys vs. Texans in Week 4?
Kalshi traders have the Texans winning by more than 3.5 points at 44% as of this writing.
What is the projected point total?
Kalshi traders have the over on 48.5 total points at 52% as of this writing.
What is the biggest storyline in the Cowboys vs. Texans Week 4 game?
Houston has been here before. The Texans also started 0-3 last season, then won their fourth game 26-0 over Tennessee and finished 12-5. This time the opponent is a Dallas defense that has struggled badly against the run, which lines up with the biggest weakness in Houston's offense. If the Texans can finally get their ground game going, Stroud gets more room against a secondary facing Lamb and Pickens on the other side.
What are the Cowboys' and Texans' expectations for the 2026 season?
Dallas Cowboys: Dallas is trying to make the playoffs for the first time since 2023 in Schottenheimer's second season. Kalshi traders have the Cowboys at 46% to make the playoffs.
Houston Texans: Houston has made the playoffs in each of the past three seasons and needs to stop the slide before the hole gets deeper. Kalshi traders have the Texans at 37% to make the playoffs.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have the Texans at 59% to win, giving a winless home team the edge over a Dallas team that ranks higher in the Kalshi power rankings. Whether Houston's run game can take advantage of the Cowboys' struggling run defense is the swing factor. Kalshi's prices for Cowboys vs. Texans will keep moving as kickoff approaches.
What are the score predictions for Cowboys vs. Texans? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the over on 48.5 total points at 52%.
What is the spread for Cowboys vs. Texans? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Texans winning by more than 3.5 points at 44%.
Who is favored to win, Cowboys or Texans? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Texans at 59% to win.
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