The Dolphins visit the Vikings on Sunday, Oct. 4, at 4:05 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings are 3-0 heading into Week 4 without Justin Jefferson, who sprained his ankle on the first drive at Tampa Bay last week. Kalshi traders have Minnesota at 83% to win against an 0-3 Dolphins team that has been outscored by 50 points.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.
When and where do the Dolphins play the Vikings in Week 4 of the 2026 season?
The Dolphins and Vikings kick off Sunday, Oct. 4, at 4:05 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
The Dolphins are 0-3 after losses to Las Vegas, San Francisco and a 24-10 home loss to Kansas City in which running back De'Von Achane tore his ACL, and they have been outscored by 50 points. As of this writing, wide receiver Caleb Douglas (ankle), edge rusher Robert Beal Jr. (hamstring) and cornerback Storm Duck (knee/Achilles) are out.
The Vikings are 3-0 after a 23-16 win at Tampa Bay in Week 3, rank second in scoring defense under coordinator Brian Flores and sit last in the league in total yards. As of this writing, Jefferson (ankle), cornerback Charles Demmings (hamstring) and punter Brett Thorson (hamstring) are out.
Kalshi power rankings
The Vikings enter as the No. 6 team in the league with a Power Score of 73.6 and a 72% playoff qualification price, while the Dolphins rank 31st with a Power Score of 7.1 and a 2% playoff price, a 25-spot gap heading into Minneapolis. See the full 2026 NFL market-implied power rankings.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have the Vikings at 83% to win and the Dolphins at 17%. Minnesota is a heavy favorite at home against a Miami team that has not won yet.
What is the point spread for Dolphins vs. Vikings in Week 4?
Kalshi traders have the Vikings winning by more than 10.5 points at 46% as of this writing.
What is the projected point total?
Kalshi traders have the over on 38.5 total points at 51% as of this writing.
What is the biggest storyline in the Dolphins vs. Vikings Week 4 game?
Jefferson will miss his first game since 2023 after spraining his ankle on Minnesota's first drive at Tampa Bay, which shifts more of the passing game to Jordan Addison. Murray has played one full game with the Vikings, going 15 of 29 for 168 yards with a touchdown and an interception in Week 3. Miami, meanwhile, lost Achane, its Pro Bowl running back, which leaves Ollie Gordon II, who had 17 carries against Kansas City, as the lead back.
What are the Dolphins' and Vikings' expectations for the 2026 season?
Miami Dolphins: Miami is in a reset year under a first-year coach and general manager. Kalshi traders have the Dolphins at 2% to make the playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are 3-0 and trying to return to the playoffs after a 9-8 finish in 2025. Kalshi traders have Minnesota at 72% to make the playoffs and 4% to win the championship.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have the Vikings at 83% to win, with 25 spots separating the teams in the Kalshi power rankings. Whether Minnesota's offense can produce without Jefferson against a Dolphins team that has been outscored by 50 points is the swing factor, given the Vikings rank last in the league in total yards. Kalshi's prices for Dolphins vs. Vikings will keep moving as kickoff approaches.
What are the score predictions for Dolphins vs. Vikings? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the over on 38.5 total points at 51%.
What is the spread for Dolphins vs. Vikings? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Vikings winning by more than 10.5 points at 46%.
Who is favored to win, Dolphins or Vikings? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Vikings at 83% to win.
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