Democrat Abdul El-Sayed's chances of winning this November’s Michigan Senate race briefly hit 74% on Kalshi's Michigan Senate winner market, before falling back to 72%.
Meanwhile, Republican Mike Rogers chances are now priced at 28%.
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What do the polls say?
WWMT reported that the latest polling continues to show a considerably closer race than the Kalshi market. Mitchell Research & Communications found El-Sayed at 45.6% and Rogers at 41.4%, a 4.2-point difference. The poll has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
El-Sayed’s endorsements
Former President Barack Obama will campaign with El-Sayed at a Detroit rally later this month.
The Guardian reported that President Obama will head to Detroit later this month to stump with El-Sayed, “a show of establishment support for a progressive insurgent in Michigan, one of the most consequential Senate races in the country.”
President Obama, El-Sayed and gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson will appear together at a Detroit rally on Oct. 24, “the first day of the state’s in-person early voting period and 10 days before election day.”
The Detroit News reported that Sen. Elissa Slotkin also campaigned with El-Sayed at a town hall in Warren on Saturday. The two appeared at a campaign town hall Saturday in Warren, Michigan.
Rogers’ endorsements
Rogers has received some key endorsements for his campaign. Michigan Advance described the Chamber's endorsement as a significant pickup for Rogers, although not an unexpected one.
The Detroit Regional Chamber endorsement was not a surprise but still a big endorsement for Rogers’ campaign. El-Sayed has been “hypercritical” of the state’s Mackinac Policy Conference organized by the Detroit Regional Chamber.
Focus groups reveal concerns
Despite El-Sayed's lead in the market and most recent polls, some Democratic voters expressed reservations about his candidacy in recent MS NOW focus groups.
Mediaite reported that MS NOW “conducted a focus group in Michigan of Jewish Democrats recently, most of whom voiced concerns about their choice between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in their state’s U.S. Senate race, with one voter going so far as to say it’s like ‘Sophie’s Choice.’”
Contributor Elise Jordan spoke to four groups of Democratic voters. The responses featured a mix of confusion and frustration over their choice of candidates. Two said supporting Israel was important to them, but one of them mentioned they have a transgender daughter and noted that “a vote for Mike Rogers is a vote for my kid being oppressed and her rights being taken away.”
Mediaite also reported that a separate Wayne County focus group of Black Democratic voters expressed reservations about El-Sayed, although Jordan said those participants appeared more likely to ultimately support him.
“Choosing between two fundamental principles of yourself, and you’ve got to pick one,” one voter said to Jordan. “You can’t not vote. You’ve got to pick one, and which one do you pick? Whose ox is gored, I guess, is the best way of putting it.”
U.S. Senate control
The Democratic Party also reached its highest point in the Kalshi Senate control market.
The market currently prices Democratic control at 65%, compared with 37% for Republican control.
El-Sayed's 72% market price gives him a substantial market lead over Rogers, although recent polling continues to show a close race.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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