Democrat Abdul El-Sayed continues to lead Republican Mike Rogers on Kalshi’s Michigan Senate race market as both candidates intensify their campaigns ahead of Election Day.
The market for the Michigan Senate race shows El-Sayed leading Rogers at 69% to 31%. El-Sayed was at 72% before the debate, and dropped as low as 66% in the days afterward.
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What do the polls say?
Recent polls also show El-Sayed holding a narrow lead over Rogers.
FiftyPlusOne polling average puts El-Sayed at 48.2%, compared with 44.7% for Rogers.
The New York Times reported that InsiderAdvantage shows El-Sayed with a 2-point lead over Rogers at 48% to 46%.
Michigan Senate race spending
Michigan has become one of the key Senate races Democrats need to win in their effort to regain control of the chamber. Advertising spending has intensified as both campaigns approach Election Day.
Axios reported that advertising spending in Michigan's Senate race has reached $181 million, making it the fourth-most expensive Senate contest overall and the seventh-most expensive per capita.
Michigan also ranks fourth in overall ad spending. Republicans have spent $105 million supporting Rogers, while Democrats have spent $76 million supporting El-Sayed.
“In the battle between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers, Democrats have spent $9.44 on ads per adult Michigander and Republicans have spent $13.01,” Axios reported.
Michigan Senate campaigning
Both candidates are making a final push to reach voters ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
The New York Times reported that El-Sayed made three campaign stops in Upper Michigan this week in Escanaba, Iron Mountain and Marquette. The trip took El-Sayed into a traditionally Republican-leaning region as he sought support beyond the state's Democratic strongholds. He appeared with U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.
The Detroit News reported that Mike Rogers' wife, Kristi, was spotted at a Detroit gas station handing out gas station gift cards to customers. The $10 gift card giveaway highlighted Rogers' proposal to suspend Michigan's gas tax as both campaigns focused on rising fuel prices.
“El-Sayed has repeatedly pummeled Rogers in the Senate race over the surging price of gas – the average price of a gallon of unleaded in Michigan reached $4.59,” The News reported. “A year ago, the price was $2.88, according to AAA Michigan. Rogers last month called on national and state leaders to suspend gas taxes amid the ongoing pain at the pump and also wanted to temporarily suspend diesel exports.”
Senate control
Democrats also lead Kalshi's market for control of the U.S. Senate.
Kalshi traders give Democrats a 62% chance of winning Senate control, compared with 38% for Republicans.
While Kalshi traders favor El-Sayed by a wide margin, recent polls suggest the election itself could be much closer, with the Democrat holding a lead of just a few percentage points.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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